Are We Deluding Ourselves?

[Frankie 8,145]

"But everything will not be all right at the end of the season. It will only get worse."

 

"...anybody who thinks it is going to get better in the summer is deluding themselves."

 

- Walter Smith - February 3rd 2010

 

"It (the debt) is a bit exaggerated."

 

"Rangers' debt can be handled by the club."

 

- Walter Smith - April 6th 2010

 

 

Two months of a difference, two markedly different appraisals of the situation, but both offered by the same man. Just which one do we believe and is the manager helping the cloud of uncertainty still hovering over a club which is just three wins away from the SPL title?

 

On the face of it, Smith's words yesterday should brighten the sky for many bears. The SPL title is within our grasp and to let such a lead go now would be unfathomable. Our debt is decreasing while our closest rivals' is increasing. Our youth system is bearing fruit and our two best youngsters have either signed or are very close to signing extended deals. Meanwhile, we have various player assets that are worth a lot of money in income if we do decide to sell. Add in the likelihood of Rangers being Scotland's sole representatives in the Champions' League Group Stage, then surely our money worries are dissipating by the day?

 

But niggling doubts remain.

 

Smith tempered his comments yesterday by confirming that if the club isn't sold Lloyds Bank remain influential in terms of our strategy for next season and beyond. A strategy that precipitated Smith's doomsday predications of last year and suggestions our activity in the summer this year will be minimal given we need to work with the squad numbers again.

 

That is worrying given we have several players out of contract in the summer - Steven Smith has rejected an offer while players such as Kris Boyd, Nacho Novo and Kirk Broadfoot have all yet to sign new deals; the SPL's highest ever goalscorer increasingly likely to move to the EPL for free. Similarly, key players such as Bougherra, Wilson, McGregor and Davis are continually linked with big money transfers out of the club. Potentially (and not unreasonably) that could mean as many as eight players leaving over the next 6-12 months and that doesn't account for natural degradation of young players moving on while the likes of Davie Weir stepping back. How do we replace these players - all of whom have played their part in our success - if we don't spend money?

 

Therefore, it is extremely valid to ask how any owner of the club - be it SDM/Lloyds Bank or Andrews Ellis/Dave King - intends to address this situation. Our recent success since Walter Smith returned has seen money spent initially but that has dried up since then, even although it could be argued our subsequent settled squad has benefited us in terms of on-field continuity.

 

With an estimated �£12-15 million about to be guaranteed from our CL participation and sales of any key players likely to add substantially to that, why is our manager so glum about the prospects of us using such monies to 'trade' our way through player turnover? If the debt is readily decreasing and success maintained with the SPL title, any owner would be foolhardy to risk a Scottish institution by grabbing as much of this profit as they can instead of sticking by already agreed payment terms. After all, allowing the squad numbers to decrease - both in terms of quantity and quality - means any future financial return is minimised and a sale difficult. Lloyds are surely not suggesting they want all of their �£25million back by January 2011 while a new owner would surely not expect to absorb said profits and keep the support of an ever-cynical fanbase?

 

As always, there are more questions than answers. The only certainty about Rangers nowadays is uncertainty. Consequently, it is extremely difficult to look forward with any degree of positiveness when those that are in positions of influence seem as unsure and doubting as the rest of us.

 

Given our current position in the SPL, this should be a time of aloof smiles and excitement about the future. Yes, the banter may be there but behind the smiles the stress remains for many of us. Is the SPL title the start of a new period of dominance for our club or simply the beginning of the end?

 

The price may have been frozen but before I pay my �£400+ to renew my season ticket, I expect to know what I'm paying for. I'm not deluding myself as to the challenging future of our club so I certainly don't expect to be deluded to by those responsible for it.

 

Too many doubts remain. Too much uncertainty prevails. It is beyond time for the key people in this situation to stop playing games and secure the future of our club.

[Zappa 0]

I can't help slightly reading into this quote from Walter:

 

Obviously the bank are the people with a plan in place � but it�s not a plan I would like to see carried out. But it�s there, so we know exactly what we would be doing in the summer: nothing.

.

The last sentence could also inadvertently mean that the plan includes slashing or axing the previous budget for a pre-season tour abroad, which will have no doubt been a very high, arguably unaffordable summer expense.

[Danny 0]

Looking at the statements closely, they refer to two complimentary comments about the same thing.

 

One is saying the current debts are going to increase, the other says they can be handled.

 

By saying they can be handled, doesn't mean they're not going to increase.

 

Walter's a canny operator tbh, a smart man - while some of his comments can be head scratching, I don't think this one is one of those.

 

There's also the second possibility that Walter's no accountant, and when he said it was going to get worse, he didn't really know what he was talking about - he's a man who knows so much about football, far less about the financial infrastructure of organisations.

 

And there's the third one which slightly overlooks the fact our debt has impressively reduced in the last 4 or 5 months down to nearer �£20M. Which makes logical sense regarding what Smith said on both occasions.

[Frankie 8,145]

I can't help slightly reading into this quote from Walter:

 

 

.

The last sentence could also inadvertently mean that the plan includes slashing or axing the previous budget for a pre-season tour abroad, which will have no doubt been a very high, arguably unaffordable summer expense.

 

To be clear, I can understand the club being reluctant to spend much money if the only cash that comes in is the CL money. The debt needs to decrease and no CL money in future years would stop that happening.

 

As such there is an impasse of sorts - do we spend (say �£3-5million) on two new players to ensure we win the 2010/11 title or is that too risky? Fair enough, that isn't easy to answer.

 

However, my point is that if a Bougherra leaves for upwards of �£6million, then when one adds that to the CL money, surely there will be funds for the manager? More so if other players leave and/or the wage bill is reduced further.

 

All in all, there is a challenge there and fans need to be realistic in our expectations. However, by the same token, when asked to part with our money again we need to be aware of how our money will be used and what the future will be.

[metlika 0]

To be clear, I can understand the club being reluctant to spend much money if the only cash that comes in is the CL money. The debt needs to decrease and no CL money in future years would stop that happening.

 

As such there is an impasse of sorts - do we spend (say �£3-5million) on two new players to ensure we win the 2010/11 title or is that too risky? Fair enough, that isn't easy to answer.

 

However, my point is that if a Bougherra leaves for upwards of �£6million, then when one adds that to the CL money, surely there will be funds for the manager? More so if other players leave and/or the wage bill is reduced further.

 

All in all, there is a challenge there and fans need to be realistic in our expectations. However, by the same token, when asked to part with our money again we need to be aware of how our money will be used and what the future will be.

 

If so many players leave during the summer we will only have about 16/17 players excluding the so called sales of Bougherra, Davis, Wilson and Mcgregor. There needs to be canny signings mostly bosmans/free transfers/loans with an odd �£2m spent on players that can add something to the squad. Not a player who will sit on the bench as we can't afford to spend on players now to sit on the bench.

 

Of course money might not be available but we have to add something otherwise we will be very, very short of players and any injury crisis that happens means we would be lucky to have a full 11.

 

Just looking at the squad we would have a squad of 19 with 6 youth players excluding Fleck and Wilson. But I am also forgetting Velicka (who probably will be injured for a few more months) and Webster plus a few other players that are out on loan, but a few who are out on loan are also out of contract iirc.

[Frankie 8,145]

The way things are going Velicka and Webster will be key players next season... The former to replace Boyd and the latter Bougherra.

 

Doesn't sound believable but our manager's words infer it may well be the truth of the matter.

 

Then we're down to Wylde replacing Smith and Little replacing Broadfoot. The loss of Novo may be accepted as natural squad erosion given we have a reasonable number of forward players. In the initial article I forgot about Beasley so the squad is reducing even further!

 

I can't see how we can lose all of these players and not bring in at least two experienced replacements.

[metlika 0]

If we lose them all I am thinking about 4 new players. Although that might be seen as too much.

[maineflyer 0]

To be clear, I can understand the club being reluctant to spend much money if the only cash that comes in is the CL money. The debt needs to decrease and no CL money in future years would stop that happening.

 

As such there is an impasse of sorts - do we spend (say �£3-5million) on two new players to ensure we win the 2010/11 title or is that too risky? Fair enough, that isn't easy to answer.

 

However, my point is that if a Bougherra leaves for upwards of �£6million, then when one adds that to the CL money, surely there will be funds for the manager? More so if other players leave and/or the wage bill is reduced further.

 

All in all, there is a challenge there and fans need to be realistic in our expectations. However, by the same token, when asked to part with our money again we need to be aware of how our money will be used and what the future will be.

The debt does need to be reduced but the club also needs to be sold, otherwise these sacrifices will only benefit the people who have led the club into this mess in the first place. No wonder there is a little stalling going on.

[Frankie 8,145]

The debt does need to be reduced but the club also needs to be sold, otherwise these sacrifices will only benefit the people who have led the club into this mess in the first place. No wonder there is a little stalling going on.

 

I think the problem there is the buyer knows he/they are the only serious bidder so think they can get it cheaper than the asking price. Conversely, the seller's position is improving and if they sell playing assets, their gain is higher.

 

Ibrox Stadium is but a chip on the felt.

 

Meanwhile, the rest of us are asked to plough in our �£400+ regardless.

[maineflyer 0]

I think the problem there is the buyer knows he/they are the only serious bidder so think they can get it cheaper than the asking price. Conversely, the seller's position is improving and if they sell playing assets, their gain is higher.

 

Ibrox Stadium is but a chip on the felt.

 

Meanwhile, the rest of us are asked to plough in our �£400+ regardless.

 

That's pretty much how I see it too...... except only a new owner will persuade me to contribute another farthing.