Zelalem And The Interpretation Of A Role

[Frankie 8,146]

Outwith the first few matches that he has played I've only noticed praise for him in this forum. I'm not sure the support is really divided on this issue.

 

When I posted the article on social media, the reaction was mainly positive in that many appreciated the qualities the lad has and agreed his inconsistent contribution can result in some fair (and some not so fair) criticism.

 

That seems to sum it up well enough to me.

[Rousseau 9,358]

I'm not a 100% sure of this and don't have time to check but is it not the case that MW has made two substitutions on are about the 60th minute in virtually every recent match, save one when they were about 5-10 minutes later?

 

Would you not agree that there are occasions when only one or no substitutions are required and that making substitutions just for the sake of giving some players "game time" or "squad rotation" might disrupt the Plan and/or upset the rhythm of the team and thus be counter-productive?

 

Apparently, the optimum time for subs are: 58 minutes, 73 minutes and 79 minutes. "To determine this, Dr. Myers analyzed the substitutions [...] of every game played during the 2009-10 season in the top English, Spanish, Italian and German professional leagues, as well as [...] the 2010 World Cup. He concluded that if their team is behind, managers should make the first substitution prior to the 58th minute, the second substitution prior to the 73rd minute and the third prior to the 79th minute. Teams that follow these guidelines improve—score at least one goal—roughly 36% of the time. Teams that don't follow the rule improve about 18.5% of the time."

 

The times of Rangers' subs (indicated by BBC Sport) in the last 7 games where: Killie (60, 61, 74), Raith (63, 64, 72), Falkirk (60, 61, 77), Morton (58, 59, 73), Livingston (67, 68, 77), Cowdenbeath (62, 62, 71), Dumbarton (68, 69, 72). This clearly aligns with the optimum times suggested by the research above.

 

This is just another way that Warburton has used stats and data to determine the correct course of action, like he uses with corners. Of course, football is a fluid game, dependent on many variables. In this Warburton is not blindly following stats, suggested by the fact that we've been trying more deliveries directly into the box recently, rather than playing short, as the stats suggest is best.

 

We have a very lean squad, so every player is able to contribute -- otherwise they wouldn't be there. Every player is schooled in his philosophy, his Plan A, and is able to come in and out of the squad easily without the team losing the rhythm of the philosophy. This is reinforced by the regularity of the subs. Of course, players have different styles, so not everything will remain the same. However, I don't think this is an issue, if all players are playing the same philosophy.

 

The data shows he likes a double substitution first, around 60 - 65 minutes (58 - 69 minutes is the range). If we take the premise that each player is schooled in the philosophy, and with regular game-time, each player is more than capable of coming into the side without disrupting the rhythm, then making the double sub would be more troublesome for the opposition. Just as the opposition are getting used to the players, there are two -- not just one -- new variables added to the mix; this, combined with the inevitable tiredness of the opponents, suggest it's beneficial to do so. This is demonstrated by the number of late goals we score, and matches the research: that the chances of scoring increase once a sub is made. We have had no reason to deviate from this method, because teams only play one way against us and we have to take the initiative (I suspect that'll change once we play 'better' sides more regularly).

 

Of course "there are occasions when only one or no substitutions are required", but that would be disadvantageous to Warburton's philosophy and squad in our current circumstances. There is no reason to blindly stick with the same 11 (plus one change, as you suggest) week after week for injuries and suspensions to mount up. That would decimate our squad. It's more advantageous for Warburton to make his changes regularly, using his full contingent, to reduce suspensions and injuries, while also ensuring that the whole squad plays regularly, adding to the effectiveness of making those subs in the first place. (It's quite self-reinforcing when I think about it.)

 

Erm, what's my point? No, I don't think it's counter-productive to make more substitutions, to rotate our squad; for the reasons outlined above. (Sorry, I rambled a bit.)

Edited February 9, 2016 by Rousseau

[BrahimHemdani 1]

Apparently, the optimum time for subs are: 58 minutes, 73 minutes and 79 minutes. "To determine this, Dr. Myers analyzed the substitutions [...] of every game played during the 2009-10 season in the top English, Spanish, Italian and German professional leagues, as well as [...] the 2010 World Cup. He concluded that if their team is behind, managers should make the first substitution prior to the 58th minute, the second substitution prior to the 73rd minute and the third prior to the 79th minute. Teams that follow these guidelines improve—score at least one goal—roughly 36% of the time. Teams that don't follow the rule improve about 18.5% of the time."

 

The times of Rangers' subs (indicated by BBC Sport) in the last 7 games where: Killie (60, 61, 74), Raith (63, 64, 72), Falkirk (60, 61, 77), Morton (58, 59, 73), Livingston (67, 68, 77), Cowdenbeath (62, 62, 71), Dumbarton (68, 69, 72). This clearly aligns with the optimum times suggested by the research above.

 

This is just another way that Warburton has used stats and data to determine the correct course of action, like he uses with corners. Of course, football is a fluid game, dependent on many variables. In this Warburton is not blindly following stats, suggested by the fact that we've been trying more deliveries directly into the box recently, rather than playing short, as the stats suggest is best.

 

We have a very lean squad, so every player is able to contribute -- otherwise they wouldn't be there. Every player is schooled in his philosophy, his Plan A, and is able to come in and out of the squad easily without the team losing the rhythm of the philosophy. This is reinforced by the regularity of the subs. Of course, players have different styles, so not everything will remain the same. However, I don't think this is an issue, if all players are playing the same philosophy.

 

The data shows he likes a double substitution first, around 60 - 65 minutes (58 - 69 minutes is the range). If we take the premise that each player is schooled in the philosophy, and with regular game-time, each player is more than capable of coming into the side without disrupting the rhythm, then making the double sub would be more troublesome for the opposition. Just as the opposition are getting used to the players, there are two -- not just one -- new variables added to the mix; this, combined with the inevitable tiredness of the opponents, suggest it's beneficial to do so. This is demonstrated by the number of late goals we score, and matches the research: that the chances of scoring increase once a sub is made. We have had no reason to deviate from this method, because teams only play one way against us and we have to take the initiative (I suspect that'll change once we play 'better' sides more regularly).

 

Of course "there are occasions when only one or no substitutions are required", but that would be disadvantageous to Warburton's philosophy and squad in our current circumstances. There is no reason to blindly stick with the same 11 (plus one change, as you suggest) week after week for injuries and suspensions to mount up. That would decimate our squad. It's more advantageous for Warburton to make his changes regularly, using his full contingent, to reduce suspensions and injuries, while also ensuring that the whole squad plays regularly, adding to the effectiveness of making those subs in the first place. (It's quite self-reinforcing when I think about it.)

 

Erm, what's my point? No, I don't think it's counter-productive to make more substitutions, to rotate our squad; for the reasons outlined above. (Sorry, I rambled a bit.)

 

Excellent answer, thanks for taking the time.

[the gunslinger 3,366]

I've never met a fan offline that rates him. I'm also not sure the split is very even.

[boabie 230]

I've never met a fan offline that rates him. I'm also not sure the split is very even.

 

I doubt there's a single fan around me in the main stand who rates him either.

[BrahimHemdani 1]

I doubt there's a single fan around me in the main stand who rates him either.

 

I swear the guy sitting next to me is going to have a heart attack the next time he gets caught in possession or makes a forward pass to the opposition. To be fair he hates Zenadine Law as well.