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4 hours ago, stewarty said:

The issue with the Brexit party is that their core membership is just another flavour of UKIP.  I'm not convinced their true support is that high, no matter how many folk voted for them in the European Parliament elections - which seemed to be a bit of a protest rather than a statement of ongoing support.

Well there have been studies that have found that there is a core of around 5m voters who will no longer back any of the three main parties, to the extent that they would not vote if a party they favoured was not standing. UKIP's total vote in 2015 was around 4m, by 2017 with the Tories promising to deliver Brexit and the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn, the UKIP vote predominantly went back to the Tories and they managed 56 more seats than Labour. At the Euro elections the BP manged 5.5m votes. Depending on the situation with Brexit the BP will either stand in every constituency or hand the Tories victory - with the BP vote secured the election results would look similar to 2015. 

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On 25/08/2019 at 09:17, BEARGER said:

 YouGov for Sunday Times Con 33% Lab 21% LD 19% Brex 14% Green 7%

Scottish sub set from this poll.

Westminster voting intention (26 August 2019) SNP 46% LD 16% CON 15% LAB 9% GRN 6% BXP 4% OTH 4% Seat projection SNP 53 (+18) LD 5 (+1) LAB 1 (-6) CON 0 (-13)

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2 hours ago, ChelseaBoy said:

Well there have been studies that have found that there is a core of around 5m voters who will no longer back any of the three main parties, to the extent that they would not vote if a party they favoured was not standing. UKIP's total vote in 2015 was around 4m, by 2017 with the Tories promising to deliver Brexit and the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn, the UKIP vote predominantly went back to the Tories and they managed 56 more seats than Labour. At the Euro elections the BP manged 5.5m votes. Depending on the situation with Brexit the BP will either stand in every constituency or hand the Tories victory - with the BP vote secured the election results would look similar to 2015. 

Sure but electorates adjust their votes depending on what is being voted for.   European Parliament election outcomes tend to vary quite a bit from general elections

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13 hours ago, stewarty said:

Sure but electorates adjust their votes depending on what is being voted for.   European Parliament election outcomes tend to vary quite a bit from general elections

Agreed, but the issue of Brexit is a real focal point, as is the possible election of Jeremy Corbyn and both will pull on the intentions of the centre right and right voters.

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2nd September

General Election: Vote would give SNP 52 of 59 Scottish seats

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The House of Commons would be unlikely to see any party win a majority

The House of Commons would be unlikely to see any party win a majority

 

A SNAP General Election would give the SNP a massive boost and leave the party with an MP in all but seven of Scotland's constituencies, according to a major new poll. 

A survey of 10,000 adults, commissioned by the Conservative Group for Europe, shows Nicola Sturgeon's party would gain 17 seats, giving them 52 of Scotland's 59 Westminster seats.

Overall a snap election would result in another hung parliament, with the Tories on 311, Labour on 242, LibDems on 21, Plaid on four, Greens on 1 and others on one.

 

People in Northern Ireland were not polled, so DUP seats are not shown in the results. The Tories could be propped up by the DUP if the party kept their 10 seats in Northern Ireland. 

However, despite losses for Labour the gains for the SNP and the LibDems could offer the party a chance to form a rainbow coalition of all progressive parties.

LibDem leader Jo Swinson has previously said she would not work with Labour's Jeremy Corbyn.

READ MORE: Snap election: Sturgeon tells Westminster to 'bring it on'

Earlier, the First Minister said if Westminster wants an election it should "bring it on".

Under this research, and YouGov poll averages since Boris Johnsonbecame PM, her party looks set to enjoy a big boost.

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Slightly different view from Electoral Calculus who specialise in quantitative analysis for electoral projects, although Scotland looks nearer the mark than England as they predicting a much larger collapse for Labour in what was its northern heartlands.

Current Scotland Prediction

Party 2017 Votes 2017 Seats Pred Votes Pred Seats
CON 28.6% 13 18.0% 3
LAB 27.1% 7 17.0% 1
LIB 6.8% 4 13.0% 5
Brexit 0.0% 0 9.0% 0
Green 0.2% 0 2.0% 0
SNP 36.9% 35 38.0% 50
UKIP 0.2% 0 0.5% 0
Other 0.3% 0 2.5% 0


 

 

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