Jump to content

 

 

Coronavirus and the political situation


Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, ranger_syntax said:

The idea of sacking SAGE for incompetence is a fairy story but I don't want to talk to you about that.

 

What I want to discuss is a once in a lifetime opportunity for you to invest in a bridge ...

Haha.  Indeed, though you just made my point for me. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Some stuff about bird flu.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamessturcke

 

A little excerpt where the much maligned Professor Pants-Down deploys the powerful science of probability:

 

Quote

Last month Neil Ferguson, a professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, told Guardian Unlimited that up to 200 million people could be killed.

 

"Around 40 million people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak," said Prof Ferguson. "There are six times more people on the planet now so you could scale it up to around 200 million people probably."

Link to post
Share on other sites

This lad gets in to everything.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8164121/Professor-predicted-500-000-Britons-die-coronavirus-accused-having-patchy-record.html

 

I just went to all the bother of doing Ctrl-f "foot" and found this passage:

 

Quote

Now a rival academic has claimed Prof Ferguson has a patchy record of modelling epidemics, which could have led to hasty Ministerial decisions.

Professor Michael Thrusfield of Edinburgh University said Prof Ferguson was previously instrumental in modelling that led to the cull of more than 6 million animals during the foot and mouth outbreak in 2001, which left rural Britain economically devastated.

 

Then, Prof Ferguson and his Imperial colleagues concluded: ‘Extensive culling is sadly the only option for controlling the current British epidemic.’

But Prof Thrusfield, an expert in animal diseases, claimed the model made incorrect assumptions about how foot and mouth disease was transmitted and, in a 2006 review, he claimed Imperial’s foot and mouth model was ‘not fit for purpose’, while in 2011 he said it was ‘severely flawed’.

 

Yesterday, Prof Thrusfield told The Daily Telegraph the episode was ‘a cautionary tale’ about the limits of mathematical modelling and he felt a sense of ‘déjà vu’ about the current situation.

 

But Prof Ferguson defended Imperial’s foot and mouth work, saying they were doing ‘modelling in real time’ with ‘limited data’. He added: ‘I think the broad conclusions reached were still valid.’

Notice the use of that weird phrase 'real time'.  It spreads like a virus too.

Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, stewarty said:

Why the torrent of criticism of SAGE & Ferguson?  Yep, because it suits the narrative that some want to push.

 

You think they're above criticism? Ferguson's record us to put it mildly extremely questionable. We saw what he himself thought of the limitations he sought to impose on everyone else bar himself. 

 

1 hour ago, stewarty said:

 

 

If SAGE are so terrible at their job, they'll all have been sacked ages ago.  The reality is, they're working in real time to best understand what is going on.  Its a thankless task.  As is the job of weighing up the potential impacts and deciding what to do about it.  And thats where my sympathy for Boris, Sturgeon, etc ends. 

 

We live in an age of zero responsibility for actions and zero accountability for incompetence. Those who suck the tit of the public purse do so safe in the knowledge that they are unsackable.

 

Look at the Salmond affair, the Rangers investigation, the non ferries, the collapse ofcthe Scottish Education system, the poisoning of sick children in the very place they should be safest, etc...etc... no one but no one held accountable for their actions/inactions incompetence etc.

Link to post
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, forlanssister said:

You think they're above criticism? Ferguson's record us to put it mildly extremely questionable. We saw what he himself thought of the limitations he sought to impose on everyone else bar himself. 

 

We live in an age of zero responsibility for actions and zero accountability for incompetence. Those who suck the tit of the public purse do so safe in the knowledge that they are unsackable.

 

Look at the Salmond affair, the Rangers investigation, the non ferries, the collapse ofcthe Scottish Education system, the poisoning of sick children in the very place they should be safest, etc...etc... no one but no one held accountable for their actions/inactions incompetence etc.

Not at all.  I just find the timing of the criticism suspicious.  

 

Ferguson has indeed been criticised throughout his career, and he will continue to be, I'm sure.  

Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, stewarty said:

Not at all.  I just find the timing of the criticism suspicious.  

 

Ferguson has indeed been criticised throughout his career, and he will continue to be, I'm sure.  

Rightly so given his record but he's in a win win situation it simply doesn't matter how much he gets things wrong there can be no repercussions. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, stewarty said:

Not at all.  I just find the timing of the criticism suspicious.  

 

Ferguson has indeed been criticised throughout his career, and he will continue to be, I'm sure.  

Timing? I think you will find he has been questioned since his opening salvo before the first lockdown and rightly continues to be.

 

The idea that anyone would be sacked from Sage is laughable. If you think politicians have reduced accountability these days, and only stand aside when asked to do so by the party the scientific community have many times less. 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, ChelseaBoy said:

Timing? I think you will find he has been questioned since his opening salvo before the first lockdown and rightly continues to be.

 

The idea that anyone would be sacked from Sage is laughable. If you think politicians have reduced accountability these days, and only stand aside when asked to do so by the party the scientific community have many times less. 

 

He has indeed.  We can debate his voracity, and others like him; but I don’t want to go there because it wasn’t my intention specifically. 
 

Besides, it’s Christmas…

 

Hope you and yours have a good one! 🌲🎁🍷

Link to post
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, stewarty said:

Not at all.  I just find the timing of the criticism suspicious.  

 

Ferguson has indeed been criticised throughout his career, and he will continue to be, I'm sure.  

Suspicious? Yes, there’s a great deal of suspicion around but, conveniently enough, blind conformance always seems to come to the rescue. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.