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Scotland officially in recession after huge GDP fall


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The Scottish economy slumped by almost a fifth between April and June, according to official figures. The figures show a drop in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter in a row, confirming the country's economy is in recession. The coronavirus lockdown restrictions were introduced at the end of March, resulting in a 2.5% drop in economic performance in the first three months. The estimated figure for April to June was a drop of 19.7% in GDP. The latest economic data from the Scottish government provided provisional monthly figures that showed some improvement in June, with an increase of 5.7% compared with the previous month.

 

Scottish Labour leader Richard Leonard said the "colossal drop" in GDP made clear that Scotland had one of the worst performing economies in Europe.

 

It just begs the question, what would it have been without the Westminster Barnett formula block grant?

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8 minutes ago, stewarty said:

How does the block grant relate to GDP though?

It's not all spent on free prescriptions and University.

 

It also allows the Scottish Govt to help local businesses through grants and loans over and above the initiatives that are provided by Westminster in terms of Furlough / Eat out days etc that cost Billions. 

 

Without this GDP would have been lower as more companies would have gone to the wall. 

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Just now, ChelseaBoy said:

It's not all spent on free prescriptions and University.

 

It also allows the Scottish Govt to help local businesses through grants and loans over and above the initiatives that are provided by Westminster in terms of Furlough / Eat out days etc that cost Billions. 

 

Without this GDP would have been lower as more companies would have gone to the wall. 

Okay I see what you're saying, although furlough benefits are not part of the block grant I don't think.  Though I'll stand corrected if I'm wrong.

 

But back to your original question, what would it be without the Barnett formula? Presumably independent and able to work out its own economic stimulus package to steady the ship until we get the virus under control.  

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Gonzo79 said:

Derek Mackay and the EU would do a terrific job, no doubt.

Most developed nations have come up with their own flavour of economic stimulus packages that have broad similarities.   Whoever was theoretically in government of an independent Scotland would likely do the very same.  

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4 hours ago, stewarty said:

Okay I see what you're saying, although furlough benefits are not part of the block grant I don't think.  Though I'll stand corrected if I'm wrong.

 

But back to your original question, what would it be without the Barnett formula? Presumably independent and able to work out its own economic stimulus package to steady the ship until we get the virus under control.  

 

 

Its not, i was giving some examples of stimulus that had been applied nationwide by Westminster.

 

You are presuming then that an Independent Scotland would not be part of the Eurozone because if it was it would certainly have its economic stimulus imposed on it by the EU. 

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