Thinker 837 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, ranger_syntax said: Russia considers the Ukraine to be a vital strategic interest. The U.S.A. knows this too. That comes down to factors including, but not limited to, the Sevastopol naval base, Russian population and the economic integration prior to 2014. If we want to determine the likelihood of other operations elsewhere then we must have similar explanations. That is to say we need to know which Russian interests would make it worth the effort. Nobody articulates such interests when imagining some future operation in Finland for example. The popular belief is that if Russia attacks one then it will attack another. Rinse and repeat. It's more complicated especially given the excessively high cost of launching an operation in a de jure N.A.T.O. member. We can prevent the latter by being strong within N.A.T.O.. Off the top of my head, there's a large Russian population in Latvia and Transnistria in Moldova. Access to the naval base and Russian enclave of Kaliningrad is of strategic interest to Russia. I agree that there are costs and benefits to be weighed by Russia over any further military actions, but Putin does not on the face of it seem to weigh these factors in a rational or predictabale way. And, as I said, we're not solely talking about Russia here. 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
compo 5,952 Posted July 5, 2022 Author Share Posted July 5, 2022 The wife paid £1.40 for a can of Heinz soup yesterday she said she could buy a pack of four for £3.50 six weeks ago . Then I listen to Boris being asked about the cost of living rises and had to listen to him waffle on about the skirmish in Ukraine causing most of the rises it’s time to go woolly Heid and get a proper conservative in charge 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gonzo79 13,349 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Thinker said: Russian enclave of Kaliningrad Slight error, Kaliningrad is an exclave. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ranger_syntax 3,715 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, Thinker said: Off the top of my head, there's a large Russian population in Latvia and Transnistria in Moldova. Access to the naval base and Russian enclave of Kaliningrad is of strategic interest to Russia. I agree that there are costs and benefits to be weighed by Russia over any further military actions, but Putin does not on the face of it seem to weigh these factors in a rational or predictabale way. And, as I said, we're not solely talking about Russia here. In my opinion we are best to focus on public statements and capabilities. We can never know what goes on in his mind. Putin has already stated that Russia can't win a conventional war with N.A.T.O.. I think all N.A.T.O. countries would agree. Of course if N.A.T.O. countries were to embark on some self-destructive course of action then that might all change. I know little about Moldova but I would guess that it is not of vital strategic interest to the United Kingdom. 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill 13,687 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Why is it that it's only ever Russia that feels sufficiently 'threatened' to justify attacking its neighbours? What is it about this sensitive bully that excuses its aggression on the basis that it is forever 'upset', like some maladjusted child? 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott7 5,009 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 1 hour ago, the gunslinger said: Thankfully they have no other neighbours with oil.......... They have neighbours with a Baltic coastline, though. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
forlanssister 3,048 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 2 hours ago, the gunslinger said: Thankfully they have no other neighbours with oil.......... Apart from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
the gunslinger 3,366 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Just now, forlanssister said: Apart from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. silly me 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ranger_syntax 3,715 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Bill said: Why is it that it's only ever Russia that feels sufficiently 'threatened' to justify attacking its neighbours? See comments about Monroe doctrine and Cuban missile crisis. That should help you, uh, adjust your view of the facts. 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ranger_syntax 3,715 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, forlanssister said: Apart from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. I sure hope that we don't impoverish Europe, any further, over central Asia. I guess we'll just need to wait for our instructions. 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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