Tannochsidebear

7 hours ago, Rousseau said:

There are several data modelling companies, Opta being one. 

 

Football clubs will pay for the service - which includes far more data than I get from my wee preferred App. (The App I use gets its data from Opta, so they must be paying for that.)

 

It should? I don't think so. Even Sima's goal at the weekend was similar, I'd say, but easier to score than Lammers' chance. It has an xG of 0.41 (I think - I can't remember exactly off the top of my head). 41% of the time players score that. It's quite high. That's what the data tells us. 

 

Remember: it's based on tens of thousands of shots. 

 

You say, 'it should be scored every single goddam time', but how many games is that based on? Can you say that with absolute objectivity. 

 

I actually think it was a tricky chance because it comes at him quite fast, from behind. It's difficult to get your legs sorted for that type of pass. 

Thanks for that R. 

The bit I have put in bold, it is based on one game, last Wednesday at Ibrox, and it should have been scored every single time because its a sitter! I dont need Opta to tell me how good a chance it is, I could see it live from the stadium with my own eyes! I dont accept it was tricky (just my opinion), not at this level, he sees it coming and fluffs it past the post. It shouldnt happen but it did. I only used it as an example to ask the question on the stat. If Opta or whoever are saying that chance should only be scored 41 times out of 100, then they are clearly counting girls football, juniors, and the Albanian 9th division in amongst their 1000's of games that make up the data, not professional football at this standard. I know you love your stats and I'm not going to (or trying to ) convince you otherwise, but it makes a mockery of the whole xG business when they say that .99 (i'll concede it's not a 1.0) sitter is a .41  

Saying they have taken data from 1000's and 1000's of games is one thing, but there are levels in football, and as I have outlined above, what is a sitter at this level is perhaps not so many levels down, but if Opta are picking all of football to generate their stats then thats not accurately reflecting chances at the level which concerns the viewer.

17 hours ago, CammyF said:

Goldson will play instead of Balogun, Lammers will start and I have a feeling that Wright will play at least some part of the game.

I agree Goldson will come back in (as always) and it seems Lammers is another MB fav so I would be shocked if he didnt start but I just dont see where he fits into our team, and for what i've seen to date he doesnt really have a precise role, but isnt good enough to be a floater either. Early days I accept.

I was really just picking what I think is our best 11 from those available from what i've seen of them so far. I dont think Sima is in our best 11 but for this game we need that pace for an outball so he is the "Kent" replacement role as Lammers doesnt appear to have much pace and I dont see Wright being a starter. Will be really interesting to see the line-up, not long now.

Gone for big soapy for that goal-saving interception alone which had it been Goldson would have been a goal and probably more dropped points.

Cantwell again played well, and the cross from Borna for the 2nd was an absolute beauty.

I have absolutely no idea what our best team is, nor what our best formation is, so not going to take a guess at the line up the manager will come up with. For what it’s worth I don’t think MB has a clue what his best team is either, so it will be very interesting to see who he goes for. I know I certainly don’t want to see certain players in the lineup as I believe them to be of insufficient quality but MB likes them (Lundstrum for one!). Our joy in previous Euro away games has come by being quick on the counter, so maybe Sima gets another chance to shine.

Thankfully I’m not picking the team, but just for this thread I’ll go for;

Butland

Tav Balogun Souttar Barasic

Jack Cifuentes

Sima Raskin Cantwell

Danilo

26 minutes ago, Rousseau said:

'xG' is specifically for football as far as I know. 

 

Probability models could be replicated anywhere, though. I could be wrong. 

Was all this xG data you have described so well above compiled by one company? If so, why? It must have been an absolutely massive data dump. It clearly isn’t monetised if it’s readily available for all games, and I’m assuming there must be some sort of AI bot keeping track of all games going on at all times in order to produce real time xG updates?

Still can’t get my head round it. Take the Lammers absolute sitter v Servette in first half. That should have an xG of 1 because it should be scored every single goddam time, but clearly he didn’t score, so next time  a player has the exact same chance the xG will be below 1 because Lammers missed his, so a striker scoring that sitter looks to have outdone his xG but in reality he has just scored an absolute sitter so shouldn’t have his stats enhanced as a result of another player having a howler? Agreed?

Rangers 3 Livingston 0

fgs Danilo

Cantwell for me but I thought he faded badly in the second half and that had a significant effect on our team performance against the loaded defence. Borna & Souttar had good games too. I thought our subs weakened us (Cifuentes apart) and this has always been a big failing of Beale, even back to the SG days when they would discuss what needed changed for ages and then get it wrong. I wish he would get some help from the 87 members of the back room team, surely one of them is tactically savvy?

Rangers 2 Servette 1

FGS - Tav

A player of limited ability that I thought was not quite the standard we need, but I loved his desire, attitude and workrate. I wish him all the very best, and hope he goes on to have a career that makes me eat my words.

Predicted line-up (not what I would go for)

Butland

Tav Goldson Souttar Barasic (anyone saying anything different hasnt been watching Bealeball!)

Raskin Jack

Lammers Cantwell 

Danilo Dessers

I absolutely hate the 4-2-2-2 formation, well at least the way we play it anyway under Bealeball, and would much prefer something that allows us to have more of an attacking style. The slow side to side play 50 yards from goal which was so chastised under Gio, is alive and well under Bealeball, and accounts for several hundred passes a game which does absolutely nothing creative whatsoever. The football is so boring to watch, and was the case for all but maybe 2 or 3 games last season even though we at least were managing to win most games. Given the massive change in players over the summer, it was enlightening to see the exact same boring slow tactics in operation on Saturday. So it tells me its nothing to do with the players, and everything to do with the megamouth snakeoil salesman manager. He has had a full uninterrupted pre-season to get his style and tactics across to the existing and new players, and nobody (players or fans) seems to have a clue what that style or tactics is. The clock is ticking, he is running out of time and needs to win well on Wednesday (in the short term) and then also win the OF game or the fans will completely lose faith in him. Lose both and he is dead man walking.

Easily Raskin for me. Surprised at the nods for Sima, who to me looked like a poor man’s Matondo! I’m not judging just yet given it’s only one game but I certainly wasn’t impressed by any of the newbies, perhaps Butland aside.

Kilmarnock 1 Rangers 2

fgs Morelos

Sorry force of habit, let’s try one of the newbies, Lammers instead!

More good work by the commercial department, more money for nothing. “Official Destination Partner” that made me laugh😂 . 

1 hour ago, Rousseau said:

Scott Wright on the list! We maybe just need a homegrown player to make up the numbers. 

 

No Sakala, Kamara, Roofe, Davies, Tamundo or Lawrence. 

 

King doesn't have to be registered.

Very interesting squad, more for the ones missing than those included. It’s only for 4 games (hopefully!) and takes us through to the end of the window but must indicate to some to get themselves a move out. There is nobody omitted I’d miss.

I see the man sent off is a forward, and I’m guessing he will now miss at least the first leg and maybe even both legs of our tie now as a result.

1 hour ago, MacK1950 said:

There's seven in there:- Butland,Balogun,Raskin,Dowell,Cantwell,Lammers and Danillo.

Raskin & Cantwell played half the season last time. Balogun is only involved until Goldson is ready so you could say only 4 newbies.

48 minutes ago, Bill said:

I think most new signings will become starters due course but I think it makes sense to get there in stages. I'm just a bit staggered that we're fielding the same defensive quartet as last season.

Agree completely, it’s not as if we had the Iron Curtain at the back, which is where we lost a lot of points and ultimately all domestic trophies last time round. 

29 minutes ago, Bill said:

I suggest a couple of amendments

Danilo - Lammers

Cantwell

Dowell - Raskin - Jack

Yilmaz - Balogun - Souttar - Tavernier

Butland

Swap small donner for Borna and that is about as good as it gets from what I’ve seen and read. The fact we’ve bought 9 players and only 5 get in the team perhaps suggests our summer recruitment isn’t quite as good as has been made out. And that defence hasn’t improved at all from what was our weak area last season.

A great tie for us, coming in between the second leg of Genk/Servette and the first leg of the play-off (presumably), meaning we can rest a couple and give some game time to others in between two massive games. Hopefully not on tv so it can be on the Saturday afternoon.

17 hours ago, Rousseau said:

I also believe that GvB's run was built upon the fitness work done by Gerrard's team. Once GvB implemented his own the following season, we were awful in that regard. 

I might not agree with your point above but I definitely agree with this comment. I am expecting to see huge improvements in this area this season. 

3 hours ago, Rousseau said:

I said it at the time: Gerrard or Beale don't get pumped in the CL the way GvB did.

 

That doesn't mean we would have won any games - it was a tough group - but I don't see 0-7 drubbings under SG or MB. 

If MB was only left with an inexperienced teenager and another 4th choice centre back, and others that stood and watched in awe as their favourite team ran riot, I don’t see him getting a better outcome. Are you saying MB is that much better a manager than Gio who took a fairly average squad to two cup finals past the likes of Dortmund & Leipzig and only lost on pens and won the other? MB has done nothing in big games to give the impression he could do any better in those conditions. He has achieved better consistency in the league but failed all the big tests and his football last season was mainly boring.

I expect us to win the treble and qualify for the CL groups (we are seeded to do so). Our only domestic opponent is full of piss-poor Asians and led by a has-been ego-maniac. 
 

I also expect us to be a shambles defensively and to be looking for a new manager by the winter break.

I don’t expect something in the middle of these extremes.

Well thank goodness that is pre-season finished. Next up, cup final 1 of 38 in pursuit of our title back. Got my ticket for the Chadwick, bring it on!

As is typical of these games, the last 10-15 mins are a bit lacklustre after all the changes.  
 

Great take by Danilo to put Matondo in, so therefore the move ends there as Rabbi hits a weak effort right at the keeper with better options available.