weebluedevil

So I think we agree. Saying Haaland had a 40% chance of scoring that chance is incorrect, right? That's because the data is not based on one players data, it's the chance based on many thousands of different players who have missed and scored a similar opportunity to that. So the stats maybe quite accurate for a level in the middle, we will lever know if that equates to the Scottish League 1 or 4th tier in Austria, but should not be accurate when assessing a chance falling to a forward in a Champions League Q game.

What I'm trying to say (and I think others are also challenging) is that the 18yr old CB from Elgin, in that position would likely miss that chance. Haaland would very likely score that chance (95% of the time). The stats includes the Haalands etc. and the Elgins etc. and everything in between to create an average. We can decide who would be more likely to overachieve the XG, surely? Or put another way - what is the XG for Haaland in that situation and what is the XG of a lad from Elgin in that situation, they would be different. Do you see the stats for the kickers in Rugby? There's a predictive stat they show on the screen on the probability of the kicker successfully converting the kick. The stat is specific to that player e.g. Russel : 83% chance of successfully converting a kick 40m out, 40 degree angle and 10mph wind speed. That's based on his own kicking data. What I'm therefore trying to estimate is what the XG is for Lammers in that situation. I expect it to be higher than 0.41. Yes, it's an estimate, not based on proof/data, but on experience of a football follower. If that data did exist (I agree small sample size) it would be higher than 0.4. Does that make sense?

So I think it's fair to say that Rangers XG should be well above the average if the stats include all professional leagues (assuming that includes the lower leagues of some countries). So if 0.41 for the Lammers 'sitter' chance then it probably ranges from 0.1 for the lower league teams to 0.8 for say a Champions league team. I guess the average is in the middle. Rangers therefore should be closer to the 0.8, which is the same as a penalty - fair to say he should have scored. I've ran that clip back a few times (from highlights I could find online) and can only see it from the one angle, and I agree it looks trickier, just because (I feel) Raskins pass is a tad slow, and I think Lammers had to rush the shot due to the back-tracking defender. So if those variables are taken into account, perhaps the XG should be 0.6/0.7, for Rangers, but yes he should score and I would still categorise that chance as a sitter.

Is that £5m just a parachute payment though for losing the play-off? We don't get it if we get through to the play-off and win, correct me if I'm wrong. Of course, the prize money for making the CL groups is the main aim.

Unfortunately, Roofe was not included in the squad for this round, so Dessers it will be.

"A draw is allowed, though frowned upon, in a 2nd leg at home should that be sufficient to progress." Yorkie Bear 2023 😤

Interesting debate on the chances created. I don't think we created enough during Livingston's low block, I watched the game and was frustrated. But, we do need to find a solution. We won comfortably in the end, but Livi came out too early in the second half, like an 800m runner sprinting ahead with 400m to go. That's unusual for Livi, especially as Martindale said he thought his team looked dangerous going forward at times. So they should have continued to frustrate us and hope they could steal a point from a counter. They will learn their lesson as will the other 8 teams that will do the same. We also need to learn to counter the low block better, it's the biggest issue we face in the league.

Servette 1 Rangers 2 FGS: Danilo

I agree Raskin wasn't his usual self and lots the ball far too much. However, I dont know why you think Barisic and Tav had good games. Barisic had one good cross that led to Danilo's goal, but he was very poor otherwise, and as others have said Tav is beaten easily and is too slow and ineffective. Our full backs will continue to be a problem for us, I agree with Yuddie.

We've tired Livi out. The right subs at the right time from Beale, completely changed the game.

Wow, what a goal Kieren Dowell

Danilo! Well done

Good to know. I shall lower my expectations

Sterling for Tav ASAP please

Never been so happy to see Tamundo come on

Roofe on for Dessers ASAP please

Thank goodness, that's so much better 😉

Good attacking line-up. Also encouraged with Shifu playing more attacking midfield role with Raskin more defensive. I hope to see goal contributions from at least Dessers and Danilio today. Further improvement required though so hoping the performance continues to progress.

100% this is the starting 11 for me, when Jack is rested. We know Tav will not be dropped, however, we should be testing Sterling in the RB role, so we should at least give him 30 mins each game and see how it goes, otherwise what is the point in signing him? As for Yilmaz, he needs to be given a run of games to prove himself, which he hasn't done yet. I thought Beale said he'll be ready fro selection for the Morton game? Or was that someone else...

Rangers 2 Livingston 0 FGS: Dessers

Went with Cantwell. Souttar continues to inmpress and juts hope he stays injury free. Borna was decent with some dangerous crosses, but Servette clearly didn't do their homework on him.

However, maybe it's time we should play with wingers and two defensive fullbacks or find two better attacking-fullbacks. Tav has a great free kick in him (occasionally) and the odd cross, but he's getting slower and is not good enough defensively. Borna showed that he still has a decent cross in him when he's playing high but again absolutely useless defensively (he'll take plaudits for last night but truth is he wasn't pressed much or tested defensively).

You could say that was as easy a 2-1 win as you'll see. Servette did not really threaten us and I can't see them being much better on Tuesday. I saw some positives tonight, so we are going in the right direction. I think if we can string a few wins together and confidence grows, we may be good enough to do something in the Europa League at least.

Not a great performance, but as I said after the Genk-Servette game, we can win this tie in 2nd gear. We'll win by a similar scoreline in Geneva IMO.

Let's hope so Bill, but with Beale you never know. I hope to see Cifuentes starting, he's match fit and we need to keep his momentum going.