A new ownership battle - an impossible situation?

[Frankie 8,157]

If there's one person worth reading regularly in the Scottish media, it's Richard Wilson. Fair, insightful and with very solid sources; if he's writing something about Rangers then you can pretty guarantee it will strike a chord with most of our fans. As such, his article in today's Herald is no exception.

 

Within it he discusses widening board divisions, outstanding club debts and the worrying (though not unexpected given the time of year) rumours the club is making large losses. However, the most interesting part for Rangers fans will be that he reckons 'at least two high net-worth Rangers fans are closely monitoring events' and may be ready to mount a new ownership bid for the club. But who are these people and just how likely are they to buy?

 

First of all, let's discuss the likely candidates:

 

Jim McColl

 

The one guy we'd all want in charge. Hugely rich, very successful, would work with fans and doesn't suffer fools gladly. But will he gamble his own fortune given serious money will be required to buy the club? He also distanced himself from any interest in a comment (again to The Herald) on Saturday even if he prefers to stay under the radar as much as possible.

 

Dave King

 

Another reasonably popular rich fan who has the money to buy and safeguard the club's future. He also has the positive profile of actually investing £20million of his own money in a previous share issue under SDM. But will his recent tax problems in South Africa mean he's considered a fit and proper person by the SFA? Add in Rule 10 of their Articles of Association then his previous involvement on the club's board preceding last year's 'insolvency event' means any ownership bid by him may be at the discretion of our close friend Stewart Regan.

 

Douglas Park

 

Apparently still recuperating abroad from ill-health - as well as enjoying his expanded family from last year so perhaps not as probable as McColl or King. Also, possibly not rich enough to go it alone but may be dragged into other bids as time goes on. Was supposed to be a key part of the Blue Knights so close associate Paul Murray's recent media appearances won't be a coincidence.

 

Brian Kennedy

 

As long as we hear Gordon McKie's name linked, we can be assured the Sale Sharks owner retains an interest and he'll still be annoyed at not securing the purchase last year. However, he's not a huge fans' favourite and, being a Hibs fan, may not have the same emotional ties as the names above. Could be argued he'd invest with the Blue Knights though.

 

 

Not a bad short leet of candidates then and we'll all have our own personal likes and dislikes as long as no clear front-runner presents their case. What is obvious though is that to buy Rangers right now would be an expensive transaction. Despite the fact the business will be loss-making (see interim accounts from earlier this year) and the recent negative media coverage surrounding asset ownership, the existing owners may not be overly keen to sell-up as it stands. After all, while the share-price may be considered artificially high, it may still represent good value as the club continues on it's journey back to the top division. IPO restrictions may also play their part to an extent - protecting current investors from any unwelcome interest.

 

However, there is also a substantial risk associated with retaining any investment. Reconstruction talks have been fruitless so far and there's no doubt Scottish football is in a depression that we've arguably never seen before. Indeed, Rangers (and Celtic) would only be protected so far in such a recession by their much larger fan-bases and further downsizing would only be a matter of time if the many problems facing Scottish football are not addressed. Simply put Rangers need European football if they're to have any chance of breaking even outwith season ticket sales.

 

With that in mind, any owner of the club (be it Zeus or one of the names above) have to consider the support first and foremost. For the 2012/13 season, Rangers had 38,000 season ticket holders and only recently have overall match-day crowds dissipated from well over the 40,000 mark. In the absence of a clear TV sponsorship deal, securing this commitment from the support has never been more important. Therefore, it can be argued, that any battle for ownership will be conducted in the hearts and minds of the fans - just like we seen last year in fact.

 

This means, in my opinion, any interested parties may have already consulted fan groups (or at least key fan figures) on whether or not a purchase is possible. In addition, we've already seen opposing sides of the board brief against each other in the press and when I described the situation as a likely coup d'état the other day, I was being entirely serious. It may well be that buying the club outright is a improbable task but securing a majority shareholding (perhaps around the 25-33% mark) is more achievable.

 

To be honest, I think this is what we're seeing now. Richard Wilson speaks of 'at least two' parties monitoring events but I'd contend they're further on that that. Moreover, I think it's only a matter of time before we see this battle get a bit more bloody. Perhaps dangerous tactics such as a call for fans not to renew season tickets as long as independent commissions do their work are not out of the question? This would be a return to the nightmare days of last summer where as Tom Miller may say, we didn't know whether or not to stick or twist.

 

Obviously Charles Green won that particular battle but is now hors de combat in France. As such, the question for his closest comrades is do they fight on and secure the ownership of the club or do they surrender (for now at least) and allow previous opponents the high-ground for further action ahead? That's a conundrum no Rangers fan will enjoy reading after the events of the last 18 months so all parties would do well to acknowledge our weariness in that regard.

 

To conclude, that's the impossible situation facing us all again. Jock Wallace spoke of 'battle fever' but little did we know this would go far beyond the lush grass of the Ibrox pitch. Its going to be a long, long summer...

[JTP 0]

McColl, King, Park or BK ....................... knit pick all you want but the fact is they would ALL be a better option than what we have at present.

[Frankie 8,157]

McColl, King, Park or BK ....................... knit pick all you want but the fact is they would ALL be a better option than what we have at present.

 

As was the case last year, I'd prefer any interested party to clearly outline to the fans why that would be the case...

[Darthter 542]

The main point to consider now (compared to the past couple of years) is that there is no major financial cases overhead.....the BTC is gone, club debt is gone - the club is fresh. Therefore any new owner looking tom come in doesn't have these unknown, potential overheads to worry about.

 

Also, from a financial stand point, the club is a pretty good bet - is the share price gonna drop as we go up the leagues??? unlikely.

 

If anyone has been watching the shares...there has been a number of large sales recently - 50k, 25k etc Obviously we don't know who is buying/selling these shares, but it could be early signs of someone starting to get a foot in the door.

CG is gone at the end of the month, it is feasible that should an offer come in for his share holding (currently valued @ £3m), he may well be more than willing to sell & head off into retirement. The same goes for Imran Ahmed's shares...is he gonna want to stick around for any length of time - his shares are valued around £1.5m mark. For a sum of £5m, it would allow someone a majority stake of around 10%.

 

A take over may not be too far away.

[Frankie 8,157]

Agreed Darther but there are a few issues that may prove problematic. Whyte is one (he'll probably fancy a pay off from any buyer), reconstruction is another and I'm not so sure how eager people like Ahmad will be to step aside on the cheap.

[der Berliner 3,263]

I would assume that most of us would like the stability that brings a mega-rich figure like McColl to the club. If only to have a solid basis for the club, while it moves forward of/on its own accord. It also would stop people worrying (whether rightly or wrongly) about the investment companies in the prospectus and Stock Exchange lists.

[Darthter 542]

Agreed Darther but there are a few issues that may prove problematic. Whyte is one (he'll probably fancy a pay off from any buyer), reconstruction is another and I'm not so sure how eager people like Ahmad will be to step aside on the cheap.

 

I think the reconstruction bit is a bit a red herring (ATM). It is highly unlikely now that ANYTHING is going to happen before next season. By the time something does happen we are either gonna be in the 1st Div or the SPL. Therefore the share price is most likely to be higher - now is the time to purchase the shares while the price is fluctuating.

 

As for Imran's shares....how much did he pay for them??? Selling for £1.5m and getting outta Dodge after less than a year, is a pretty appealing prospect.

 

As for Whyte.....with out CG & IA about, I believe his influence will diminish. He's playing on the fact that both are still actively involved with the club - it increases his de-stabilising effect. Also, any possible legal case may move towards the individuals & away from the club.

[Frankie 8,157]

I would assume that most of us would like the stability that brings a mega-rich figure like McColl to the club. If only to have a solid basis for the club, while it moves forward of/on its own accord. It also would stop people worrying (whether rightly or wrongly) about the investment companies in the prospectus and Stock Exchange lists.

 

As much as we talk about fans owning the club, I think the Rangers support prefer the rich benefactor model so McColl fits the brief almost perfectly. Another positive is that he's worked with the Trust before in terms of improving the way we interact with the club so that should help his case.

 

Just how keen is he though...?

[Blue Moon 1,114]

Frankie, I would just like to say thanks for bringing a bit of clarity to everything today.

[Frankie 8,157]

I think the reconstruction bit is a bit a red herring (ATM). It is highly unlikely now that ANYTHING is going to happen before next season. By the time something does happen we are either gonna be in the 1st Div or the SPL. Therefore the share price is most likely to be higher - now is the time to purchase the shares while the price is fluctuating.

 

As for Imran's shares....how much did he pay for them??? Selling for £1.5m and getting outta Dodge after less than a year, is a pretty appealing prospect.

 

As for Whyte.....with out CG & IA about, I believe his influence will diminish. He's playing on the fact that both are still actively involved with the club - it increases his de-stabilising effect. Also, any possible legal case may move towards the individuals & away from the club.

 

All fair points mate - it will be interesting just how many obstacles do present themselves and to what lengths any buyer may go to.