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1 hour ago, craig said:

The Democrats, for me, seem to not have a clue what the American people want to hear

Very similar to Labour in the UK.  They have abandoned much of their core voter base by grabbing on to the coattails of minority interest groups.

 

It's quite astonishing that Biden is the best they can come up with.

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1 hour ago, JFK-1 said:

Neither of those premise are accurate. Trump inherited a a strong economy he didn't create one. And has conducted a witless losing trade war with China that's been detrimental for American farmers and steel workers. Both articles from PolitiFact.

No, the economy didn't suddenly get strong under Donald Trump

Did Donald Trump lose a trade war he started, as Joe Biden says?

I literally looked at the first couple of paragraphs of the first article and they talk of the US economy "getting back to its feet" - that isnt one of a strong economy at all, it is the sign of a recovering economy.  So Trump absolutely CAN lay claim to improving the economy - and it can't be disputed that the unemployment rate, until this pandemic, was at a historic low under Trump too.  Maybe my use of the word "made" was a little lazy as no President truly makes an economy - but the economy in the US is undoubtedly stronger under Trump than it was under Obama.  Regardless of whether Obama inherited the 2008 financial crisis or not, which would need to be compared on a like-for-like basis and that can't be done, the economy in the US had gotten stronger under Trump.

 

As for their statement that Obama inherited the Great Depression it is a fair point.  However, what also could be suggested is that Obama actually obtained the Presidency BECAUSE of that Depression - I would suggest you read the book Confidence Men (I actually found it a very dry, tough read) - Obama had an "in" within the banking hierarchy as his campaign was getting underway and they were informing him that the banking/financial sector was under severe pressure and lack of regulation.  Anyway, that is an aside.

 

Your suggestion that he has conducted a witless losing trade war isnt even borne out by the article - they even say that he hasnt lost that trade war as yet.  Got to love political propaganda though... Biden says farmers bankrupted - true ?  Sure.  Steel workers betrayed ?  Maybe.  But is that all really part of Trump's poor trade war with China or is it also because the Chinese economy and trades have picked up far, far quicker than Western countries given COVID ?  But if it is such a poor trade war with China why is is that car manufacturers have taken to making back in the US ?  You have mentioned two industries that have been negatively impacted, which is fair enough - however, how do you complete the circle given there were, pre-pandemic, historically low unemployment rates under Trump ?

 

Either way, those articles don't actually prove what I said to be incorrect and, in fact, I don't think that there can be even any debate that the economy has been stronger under Trump.  And the trade war hasnt finished playing itself out as yet.

 

If you wish to support Biden I would love to know on what grounds you would support him (obviously other than that he simply isnt Trump) because, from almost everything I have seen of Joe Biden, he has cognitive impairment and literally cannot act unless completely on the script of others.

 

Only my opinion, but the US economy would suffer badly under a Biden Presidency.

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This is a way bigger debate than can be boiled down to a couple of soundbites on the economy and China.  However I think you are both right but for different reasons @JFK-1 @craig

 

Trump did inherit a recovering/strong economy but has run into Covid in the final year of his term.   And Trump's rhetoric on China sounds great, but is a long way off being proved to have been successful.

 

----

 

I think its a fair challenge though in terms of "why Biden?"  What is the positive case for his election, other than him not being Trump? 

 

My own  issue with Biden is the vagueness associated with some of his policies.  I don't hear anything tangible in the discussion around them.  E.g. when I hear "build back better" being the central plank of his manifesto, what does that actually mean?  

 

His cognitive performance is interesting as I agree he clearly has issues, as most men of his age will have.  Trump has similar issues - there's loads of recent videos going viral on that very topic, so I'm left wondering whether the debate in some US voters minds is: who is the less cognitively impaired candidate?  And on that topic, who knows?

 

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3 hours ago, craig said:

Not so sure about the swing voters moving away from him.  In all 6 swing states the race is still very, very tight with, as of last week Trump leading in one (another poll has Biden leading that state) and Biden in 5 - but Biden's lead in those 5 is 3 or less in 3 of them and he is leading by 5 and 6 points in the other 2.

 

Some of the current stats are interesting, to me at least :

 

Wisconsin -  Biden is leading the polls there by 5.... in 2016 Clinton was leading their exit polls by 6.5 - so a slightly healthier lead than Biden currently has.... and yet Trump took that State by 0.7.

 

Pennsylvania - exit polls had Clinton leading, on average, by 2 (but this was suppressed by one poll getting it "right" by having Trump win - the average excluding Trump's forecast vote was Clinton by 4) - currently Biden has that state by 3

 

Arizona - Trump led in all exit polls, by an average of 4 and won by 3.5.  Currently Biden is leading by 2.  Is this indicative of where the polling will go ?

 

Florida - Closest state in 2016 for swing states..... Trump had an average lead of 0.2, won it by 1.2 - but 4 of 7 states had Clinton winning it by 1 or 2, with one calling it a tie.  Currently Biden is winning by 3.

 

Michigan - Clinton had an average lead of 3.4, with most polls giving her a 5 point advantage whilst Trump won it by 0.3.  Biden is currently up by 6 - should win this one.  But those Clinton 5 point leads suggests there's a long way to go in the process.  Interestingly though, another poll came out 2 days later and has Trump leading by 2 (guess which one was a Dem poll and which one a GOP....)

 

North Carolina -  Had Trump by 1 in 2016 and currently Biden has a 1 point advantage.  Trump won by 3.7 so if the polls are getting it wrong by a similar number then Trump actually wins again.  An East Carolina University poll released yesterday currently has Trump winning by 2

 

I guess the one big question to as is whether the pollsters have made whatever corrections needed to be made given how wrong they got it in 2016.

 

The key to the Dems winning is probably keeping Biden away from direct debate with Trump and having him read from prepared scripts and not straying.  Will the American voting populace see through that ?

 

There is a long way to go in this race and Trump may be behind but I saw a US news segment the other week that spoke of how far behind they had him 4 years ago as well.  One thing Trump's campaign did very well last time out was they had their finger on the pulse of what the American people wanted to hear.  The issue for the Trump team is that this time round the campaign managers are completely different given how many people he has gotten rid of - do they still have their finger on the pulse ?

 

The Democrats, for me, seem to not have a clue what the American people want to hear - they seem to stumble from crisis to crisis and untrusted candidate to untrusted candidate.

 

Hate Trump as much as people like but he has actually made the American economy one of strength and has definitely tried to re-balance trade tariffs with other countries, which helps US products become more competitive internally.  The stock markets love him.  If the Dems win strap in because the markets and, by extension, our pension funds will be in for a roller coaster.

 

 

I've heard the trade deficit with China has been corrected with as much as 300 billion ?

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3 hours ago, JFK-1 said:

Neither of those premise are accurate. Trump inherited a a strong economy he didn't create one. And has conducted a witless losing trade war with China that's been detrimental for American farmers and steel workers. Both articles from PolitiFact.

No, the economy didn't suddenly get strong under Donald Trump

Did Donald Trump lose a trade war he started, as Joe Biden says?

Trump, Trump, Trump.

 

This is the Joe Biden thread.

 

Please try to keep up.

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