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Brexit - The Chequered Flag


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Someone else’s fault. Blah blah blah. 
 

At some point brexiteers will own their mess.  Doesn’t seem it’ll happen any time soon if the bold Brendan is anything to go by.  
 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Recent trade data showed that while UK exports to the EU fell by 42 per cent in January, they rose by 46.6 per cent in February. Imports are slightly lower than they were in December 2020, but they grew in February, too.

On top of this, as German economist Wolfgang Münchau points out, current IMF projections show no clear impact from Brexit on economic growth more broadly. In fact, they suggest UK growth will be higher than the EU’s in the coming years.

 

So Osborne really was blowing smoke up the establishment's arse with project fear!

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4 hours ago, ChelseaBoy said:

So Osborne really was blowing smoke up the establishment's arse with project fear!

Indeed. No sign of WW3 or volcanoes in Piccadilly

 

1883879224_BrexitDisaster.jpg.19408f7033459405fa40723579362116.jpg

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15 hours ago, ChelseaBoy said:

Recent trade data showed that while UK exports to the EU fell by 42 per cent in January, they rose by 46.6 per cent in February. Imports are slightly lower than they were in December 2020, but they grew in February, too.

On top of this, as German economist Wolfgang Münchau points out, current IMF projections show no clear impact from Brexit on economic growth more broadly. In fact, they suggest UK growth will be higher than the EU’s in the coming years.

 

So Osborne really was blowing smoke up the establishment's arse with project fear!

The ONS update urged caution in asessing the monthly trade numbers:

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/february2021#:~:text=2.Table 1%3B Figure 1).

 

Quote

3.Understanding trade

In this month's bulletin we focus heavily on monthly trends due to their volatility since the end of the transition period with the European Union. However, it should be noted that monthly data are erratic and small movements in these series should be treated with caution. More information on the impact of EU-Exit on the collection and compilation of UK trade statistics was published recently by the ONS.

January 2021 saw significant falls in imports and exports of goods from the EU, particularly in machinery and transport equipment, and chemicals. January 2021 data were the first to show trade after the transition period ended on 31 December 2020. In addition to the changes facing the UK after the transition period ended, England joined the rest of the UK in another national lockdown at the beginning of January 2021, which continued through February. The falls are also consistent with the unwinding of stocks, after businesses stockpiled in November and December 2020 in preparation for the end of the transition period.

The 7-day average of daily shipping visits increased from 290 visits on 31 January 2021 to 344 on 28 February 2021. We expect shipping indicators to be related to the import and export of goods, and therefore these early indicators suggest partial recovery consistent with the increases seen in February trade figures. Despite the evidence of partial recovery from the substantial January falls in some commodities, it is still too soon to determine to what extent the monthly changes in trade for January and February can be directly attributed to the end of the transition period. Evidence from the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) suggested that additional paperwork and higher transportation costs were the biggest challenges facing UK importers and exporters in February, which most businesses attribute to leaving the transition period. However, trade patterns are likely to also reflect the impacts of the unwinding of stocks, coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic restrictions, and lower demand due to the UK and global economic recession. It is too soon to be able to assess to what extent recent trading patterns are short-term or reflect more lasting structural changes.

 

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Posted (edited)

I don't really understand the point in continuing to challenge the prospects of something that has already happened. It has the same smell as the SNP and the independence referendum .... yes we failed to make a case for it but here's why it needs to happen. Pro-EU zealots continue to promote the ruin of leaving the EU, which was fair enough before we left but just looks like a tantrum after the effect. The only argument that makes sense now is about how the UK should embrace it's independent future. 

Edited by Bill
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4 hours ago, stewarty said:

Exactly, the clamour about negative trade in January and the glee it brought the hardcore remainers has been largely negated by a positive rebound in February and both sets of figures are cautionary, though the negative ones seem to have been treated as fact by the Guardian/Metro etc. We wil not know the full picture until economies open up, but the fact that the UK will grow GDP faster than the EU is something the IMF is sure about.  

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1 hour ago, ChelseaBoy said:

Exactly, the clamour about negative trade in January and the glee it brought the hardcore remainers has been largely negated by a positive rebound in February and both sets of figures are cautionary, though the negative ones seem to have been treated as fact by the Guardian/Metro etc. We wil not know the full picture until economies open up, but the fact that the UK will grow GDP faster than the EU is something the IMF is sure about.  

I would be applying caution to those IMF forecasts too, for similar reasons.  Not arguing they're wrong, mind.   

 

 

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2 hours ago, stewarty said:

I would be applying caution to those IMF forecasts too, for similar reasons.  Not arguing they're wrong, mind.   

 

 

It is defiantely too early to tell, but evidence suggests there has been no falling off a precipe for either the UK or EU (apart from say vaccine procurement ;) )

 

 

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