Interesting stats and the split

[Super_Ally 0]

Well you can decide if it's interesting.

 

If the Hibernian at least match Motherwell's result with St Mirren when we travel to Leith (god forbid it's any more than a heavy defeat :devil:) or as long as St Mirren manager a victory, the teams currently occupying top 6 places will remain so for the post-split fixtures.

 

Strathclyde police have already decreed that the Old Firm should be the 9th of May, the second post-split fixture, to minimise any repeat incidents from Celtic fans as witnessed in May 99.

 

However, how have the two sides fared in the corresponding fixtures earlier in the season and can they give us any insight into who holds the edge going into these crunch end of season fixtures?

 

At the momment, Hibernian hold the advantage of currently occupying 6th spot, so first we will consider how the fixtures will likely pan out if they finish in the top half come Sunday afternoon.

 

The results achieved by the ourselves and Celtic in the same fixtures earlier this season are as follows (inc. 1 remaining pre-split fixture):

 

Rangers

Hibs (A) 3-0 W

Celtic (H) 0-1 L

Dundee U (A) 2-2 D

Hearts (A) 2-1 L

Hibs (H) 1-0 W

Aberdeen(H) 2-0 W

 

Points 10/18, GD +3

 

Celtic

Aberdeen (H) 3-2 W

Rangers (A) 0-1 W

Hearts (H) 1-1 D,

Hibs (A) 2-0 L

Aberdeen (A) 4-2 L

Dundee United (H) 2-2 D

 

Points 8/18, GD -2

 

These fixtures earlier in the season saw us collect 10 out of a maximum 18 points with a slender +3 improvement in the goal difference. Not overly impressive, but a better return than Celtic's 8 points from the 18 available.

 

The above results are displayed in no particular order with reference to how the split might pan out. However it is clear to see and will not be news to fans of any club, but the remaining Old Firm and the two remaining away ties at Tynecastle and Tannadice remain our biggest tests.

 

Celtic will not be relishing another trip to Edinburgh to take on Hibernian, nor their two remaining fixtures with Aberdeen who have shown a reasonable ability to take points off Celtic across recent seasons. The fact that the remaining Old Firm game is at Ibrox will also be of concern.

 

Should we defeat Hibernian this weekend and Motherwell collect 3 points against St Mirren they will replace Hibs in the top 6 and the post-split fixtures become more complicated.

 

As Hearts did not finish top 6 last season they will not be seeded by the league chiefs to finish top 6 this year. That means that if Motherwell do attain the final top 6 spot it is Hearts whose fixtures would change with Motherwell "due" an away tie at Parkhead and home match with Rangers. Celtic would not relish now being sent to Tynecastle yet again this season. Of course, nothing is ever certain with the SPL split, however that is the accepted wisdom for how the fixtures will be resolved.

 

If Motherwell were to steal a top 6 spot the related statistics for each side's corresponding fixtures earlier in the season are altered:

 

Rangers

Hibs (A) 3-0 W

Celtic (H) 0-1 L

Dundee U (A) 2-2 D

Hearts (H) 2-0 W, 2-2 D

Motherwell (A) 0-0 D

Aberdeen(H) 2-0 W

 

Points 12/21, GD +6

 

Celtic

Aberdeen (H) 3-2 W

Rangers (A) 0-1 W

Hearts (A) 0-2 W, 1-1 D

Motherwell (H) 2-0 W

Aberdeen (A) 4-2 L

Dundee United (H) 2-2 D

 

Points 14/21, GD +4

 

With the fixtures unevenly weighted compared to the first example, (Celtic would travel to Tynecastle for a third time, whilst we would again welcome them to Ibrox) it is harder to make statistical sense of the date.

 

What is apparent though is that Celtic would be keen to avoid returning to Tynecastle so soon after being lucky to escape with a draw thanks to an early Hesselink strike.

 

The flip side of that is a game against Motherwell, managed by their good friend Mark McGhee. The Lanarkshire club's manager openly admitted last year he would prefer Celtic won the title last year and with his team already conceding 7 out of a possible 9 to Celtic this year the hooped hordes would be confident of maximum points in such an important fixture.

 

From looking at the two scenarios, even a cursory glance shows which scenario might better suit or hopes. In scenario A we amassed 10 points from 18 in the same fixtures earlier this year to Celtic's 8 (A rate of 1.67 points per game compared to Celtic's 1.33). In the second set of potential fixtures we acrued only 12 points from a possible 21 to Celtic's 14 (1.71 points/game compared to their 2).

 

So whilst we collected more points in the games from scenario B earlier in the season, the improvement in Celtic's results was even greater.

 

The accepted wisdom is that Motherwell securing the final top 6 spot would likely send the tar riers to Gorgie for the third time this year giving Celtic a very difficult fixture to negotiate. However, with the SPL nothing is certain, Celtic may not be asked to return to Tynecastle. Particularly with their club's spokespeople already kicking up a hubbub about the post split fixtures and Strathclyde's finest intervention to limit the potential fallout from their followers.

 

In any case, the number of points collected earlier in the season, whilst a useful indicator of our potential opponent's threat to our title aspirations, may have no bearing on the fixtures still to come. They do, however, produce an interesting point of debate ahead of 6 monumental fixtures for Smith, McCoist, McDowall and the players.

Edited April 15, 2009 by Super_Ally

[Super_Ally 0]

Meant to add a disclaimer;

 

Apologies if any stats, facts or suppositions are incorrect and would appreciate any errors pointed out. Hopefully they wont be too erroneous.

[Tannochsidebear 2,320]

Interesting stuff.

 

I think Motherwell will pip Hibs to 6th, and that they will send the ****s to Fir Park rather than Tynecastle.

 

As a direct result, our third home game will come against Motherwell and not Hearts.

 

Today's outburst by Timmy makes absolutely no sense on its own merits, and has been done only to put pressure in the mhedia on the SPL when they have to announce the fixtures on Sunday/Monday.

 

Timmy always gets his way with a little imtimidation thrown in for good measure, and this time will be no different.

 

We should be coming out with a clear statement before this weekend stating that it was only due to timmy's bad behaviour 10 years ago that meant we could no longer have the final OF game either a title decider or on a bank holiday weekend.

 

And that we expect a much fairer and even-handed post-split scenario than last season.

 

Will we release this said statement, not a chance. We wont even moan about it officially when it is announced and the scum's odds for the title have been cut again without a further ball being kicked. That would tell you how fair the fixtures have been carved up again.

[Super_Ally 0]

Interesting stuff.

 

I think Motherwell will pip Hibs to 6th, and that they will send the ****s to Fir Park rather than Tynecastle.

 

As a direct result, our third home game will come against Motherwell and not Hearts.

 

Today's outburst by Timmy makes absolutely no sense on its own merits, and has been done only to put pressure in the mhedia on the SPL when they have to announce the fixtures on Sunday/Monday.

 

Timmy always gets his way with a little imtimidation thrown in for good measure, and this time will be no different.

 

We should be coming out with a clear statement before this weekend stating that it was only due to timmy's bad behaviour 10 years ago that meant we could no longer have the final OF game either a title decider or on a bank holiday weekend.

 

And that we expect a much fairer and even-handed post-split scenario than last season.

 

Will we release this said statement, not a chance. We wont even moan about it officially when it is announced and the scum's odds for the title have been cut again without a further ball being kicked. That would tell you how fair the fixtures have been carved up again.

 

Sounds like a fair assessment of how the fixtures will be worked out.

 

Easiest scenario is if Hibs make it. However with 'Well playing St Mirren, if we were to beat Hibs that looks unlikely.

 

As I alluded to, in season's past it's the team not seeded to finishe top 6 who have their fixtures altered and the consensus opinion is Heart to host Celtic 3 times. However, the SPL will do what they want for the easiest life. I.e. keep the *******s happy.

[Super_Ally 0]

The evening times have produced more interesting stats:

 

Rangers record against the top six this season.

 

24 points won out of 42.

 

24 goal scored.

 

11 goals conceded.

 

 

Soup Kitchen Select's record against the top six this season.

 

21 points won out of 42.

 

22 goals scored.

 

21 goals conceded.

 

Ahead of them on all three counts. here's hoping this continues!

[Cotter 0]

Soup Kitchen Select!! lol I'm using that next opportunity I get.

[Super_Ally 0]

Soup Kitchen Select!! lol I'm using that next opportunity I get.

 

Shameful c+p, can't take credit.

 

Btw that's the results using Hibs as a top 6 side. If Motherwell make it they're a bit different. The upshot being they are nigh on identical using Motherwell as the 6th team but we have a superior defence.