The Rangers Takeover - The Frying Pan or the Fire?

[Frankie 8,157]

With the takeover speculation reaching fever pitch, chairman Alistair Johnston flying in today and the interim financials about to be released, never has the end of March been so exciting to be a Rangers fan.

 

In the Whyte corner we have an allegedly hugely successful (but hitherto unknown) businessman eager to buy one of Scotland's finest institutions and the country's most successful football club. 'In the red' corner (literally) we have Sir David Murray a hitherto hugely successful businessman (but now not so keen on public appearances) desperate to sell.

 

Therefore, what does this mean for the average bear in layman's terms?

 

Firstly, Whyte obviously brings an apparent ambition to the club which has been lacking under the custodianship of Murray in recent years. If you believe the media, he is promising �£5million per annum of 'new' money over the next five years while the club currently tries to fend off a bank eager to claw back a similar debt figure.

 

Secondly, after 20 odd years of boom and almost bust under MIH, many fans are eager for change; a freshness for the future if you will. Sick of downsizing year after year, the Whyte link provides something different to the constant negativity painted about the club's ongoing viability. After all, it's not often Rangers FC changes hands but when it does investment can be expected and most supporter's immediate reference point is ironically when SDM assumed control where the money/success quickly poured in.

 

However, it is absolutely vital to make the point this situation is completely different. Scottish football no longer plays on the same field as other European leagues. Financially we remain hamstrung by less than lucrative TV deals while an ongoing recession means supporters have little spare cash to invest into bonds and share issues. Football generally isn't seen as somewhere people can make money; never mind in the backwaters of Scotland.

 

To that end, one must ask where will Craig Whyte source the money for his trouble? To begin with �£25-28million is a fair amount up front to even buy the club. Given we know little about his background or financial successes rumours persist that he lacks the cash to do this and the delay since he made his interest clear perhaps lends weight to that. Where then will he find the �£5million per annum to invest into the playing squad? After all it has been quite obvious that without CL group stage football and/or player sales Scottish clubs cannot make a profit and remain competitive.

 

Outwith the usual sources I see no way for Whyte to provide such money other than from his own pocket or via some new investment opportunity - be it a share issue or land-bank development. Initial fan enthusiasm aside, I doubt a share issue could raise �£25million from the rank and file so he'd be reliant on investment from wealthier people. This may explain his recent social meetings with well-kent businessmen. However these folk wouldn't put in such amounts for nothing. Would a directorship be enough or would they want a slice of the property pie? Where does Andrew Ellis fit into that equation?

 

Obviously without further information it is impossible to formulate an educated opinion on this bid so it is natural for us to be sceptical. Conversely though, Whyte has clearly satisfied important people as to his suitability so perhaps the worries are merely people being ultra-cautious.

 

However, do we have little choice than to back Whyte taking control? Exclusive public LBG promises to this website notwithstanding, key figures in the club are constantly at pains to tell us things will only get worse as long as the status quo remains. If we don't win the title and qualify for the CL then how do we service a debt the bank are keen on reclaiming - never mind invest new money into the club to maximise our future chances of success?

 

To sum up, despite the understandable excitement and elation, genuine doubts remain about our club's future. Instead of dealing with irrelevant bloggers regarding his past reputation, I'd much rather Craig Whyte dealt with a Rangers support who are about to invest �£20million of their own next month.

 

Tomorrow is April the 1st. I, for one, am sick of being treated like a fool and I won't be parting with my cash easily without finding out more about our club's future.

[calscot 0]

For me, even some of the worst case scenarios of a new owner seem to be more tolerable than the status quo. Despite the unknown's, I'm desperate for the takeover to succeed as I just can't see our club sustaining the current, almost miraculous level of success in the face of not only more cuts to pay for the current debt - but even if we were let off lightly and allowed the same budget, I can't see us continuing to compete with our nearest rivals nor in Europe.

 

Even without a �£5M investment every year, a debt free Rangers would remove the bank's stranglehold on the finances and if we live within our actual means we will still at least have the resources to compete with Celtic in the long term - with the proviso that they receive no external financing.

 

One thing is for sure, once a new owner is in place, the new owner will have to rebuild a relationship with the support as the cynicism is now rife and it feels like revolt from season ticket holders will not take too much provocation. Those in the trenches are getting weary of the sheer patronisation and exploitation from the generals sitting miles behind the lines.

[Frankie 8,157]

Removing the debt will be a huge boost but money still has to flow into the club - especially if we don't qualify for the CL.

 

I've no problems with a more efficient playing squad (and lowering other overheads) to accommodate this but there's a fine line between downsizing and competitiveness.

 

I hope Whyte falls the right side of that line.

 

Generally I too want a change but am just making sure our fans realise that with change doesn't come automatic success.

[calscot 0]

I agree with you but our long term goal must be to live within our means without external investment. We can't expect to be bailed out every 10 years - in fact, I'd like the rules changed so all clubs have to live within gate and TV income.

 

Success won't be automatic but with two equal horses, I'd be betting on the one without the huge handicap weight.

 

With regards to downsizing, to paraphrase, I think it's a case of tailoring the size of the cloth to fit perfectly. Maybe it should be called "rightsizing" or something. However, I do agree that spending needs to be fudged out over several years due to the interdependent vicious/golden circles of income, squad investment and success.

 

I too hope Whyte comes good, but with only the choice between him and SDM/Lloyds, I think we have to hold our breath and take the plunge.

 

All new owners will be a gamble and we can only suck it and see...

[pete 2,499]

I agree with you but our long term goal must be to live within our means without external investment. We can't expect to be bailed out every 10 years - in fact, I'd like the rules changed so all clubs have to live within gate and TV income.

 

Success won't be automatic but with two equal horses, I'd be betting on the one without the huge handicap weight.

 

With regards to downsizing, to paraphrase, I think it's a case of tailoring the size of the cloth to fit perfectly. Maybe it should be called "rightsizing" or something. However, I do agree that spending needs to be fudged out over several years due to the interdependent vicious/golden circles of income, squad investment and success.

 

I too hope Whyte comes good, but with only the choice between him and SDM/Lloyds, I think we have to hold our breath and take the plunge.

 

All new owners will be a gamble and we can only suck it and see...

 

AS far as I know FIFA or UEFA have changed the rules and all clubs had 3 years to get their debt down to a limit consistent with their income.