Crimson Dynamo 128 Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 when i play football manager, it's the system i use to make all my signings. i just amend it to accommodate specific positions unless unless i go Chelsea or something then I just spend, spend spend :-). ultimately we need something quick and simple to hit the ground running. Employing scouts is the answer long term but we don't have that luxury at the moment. So why not try something like this 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
trublusince1982 243 Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Would be happy just to see a start. With king saying no football director I don't think any statistical approach will be on the cards. That sort of endeavour needs a specialised team who would require a d.o.f or such to ensure consistency. Think it will be the old scouting networking while dipping our toe into new approaches. 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
calscot 0 Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 I don't know enough about baseball to comment but I do feel there's a place for statistics in football when it comes to our footballing and scouting operations. Trends are trends and well worth exploring but only if it's done correctly. If not, it may just cause more harm than good. It also may make us worse to watch - after all who could argue with our results stats in the third tier? I recall the start of it in Moneyball was a batter who could get to first base the most consistently, no matter how he got there - which can be done without hitting the ball. It's about buying undervalued journeymen players who are not good to watch but are good at some boring thing that statistically helps to win games. Applied to us and our football and you're not going to get the most beautiful of games. As previously alluded to, you'll probably get something like two seasons ago, or at best, Walter Smith's side who slogged their way to the Europa final. 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
trublusince1982 243 Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 (edited) It also may make us worse to watch - after all who could argue with our results stats in the third tier? I recall the start of it in Moneyball was a batter who could get to first base the most consistently, no matter how he got there - which can be done without hitting the ball. It's about buying undervalued journeymen players who are not good to watch but are good at some boring thing that statistically helps to win games. Applied to us and our football and you're not going to get the most beautiful of games. As previously alluded to, you'll probably get something like two seasons ago, or at best, Walter Smith's side who slogged their way to the Europa final. Depends on the statistics being collated.ball retention, passes completed successful runs etc can find exciting attributes. They are used correctly at the likes of Southampton. As you say if they use it to find a cheap "will get the job done "approach it would send us back to the ws style of play Edited June 10, 2015 by trublusince1982 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frankie 8,148 Posted June 10, 2015 Author Share Posted June 10, 2015 Open to abuse here, but I'd take another year or 2 of re-building/Championship if it meant spending money on these type of guys, and building a philosophy at the club akin to Ajax/Barca/Anderlecht etc. Are we talking about a Cathro/Warburton type of manager here?! Like anything else though, there's no guarantee of success. However, if Warburton is appointed then I'd imagine he will be exploring this - to what scale though, I'm not sure. Personally, I'd think stats are just another tool in a box that should have a variety of solutions. 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
calscot 0 Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 I think in a European sense, it could be an exercise in futility, as the most reliable statistic for a prediction of success in the EPL has so far been the size of the wage bill. And before someone says that it didn't happen for us last season, it's a correlation which doesn't necessarily apply 100% in every single case. There are obviously other influential factors - off-field money and boardroom problems, and disaffected fans being huge ones. There also seems to be the "Mike Ashley factor"... But it's obvious we also didn't finish in the bottom half. The three most expensive teams took the first three places. 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oleg_Mcnoleg 50 Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 (edited) In addition to some of Calscot's very sensible reservations, I'd add a couple of others. Firstly, if every other fecker's using the same statistical analysis too, the advantage for any one club of doing so is lost. And secondly, there's some suggestion of players not attempting risky passes etc because they're worried about the impact on their personal stats if they don't come off. They're clearly potentially useful for analysing team performances (is there a pattern to the goals we concede, etc) but I'm less sure about them at an individual level. Individual-level stats wouldn't accommodate opponents making adjustments to their play to counter your strengths: you're a dominant, tough-tackling central midfielder but your stats aren't as good as others' because opponents try to play down the flanks or go long to avoid you, for eg. All about what you do with them but I always worry that folk lose the context etc when there's numbers involved. Edited June 10, 2015 by Oleg_Mcnoleg Typos. Bloody ipad bloody predictive bloody text 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
the gunslinger 3,366 Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Isn't this why Warburton quit his last job 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frankie 8,148 Posted June 10, 2015 Author Share Posted June 10, 2015 Isn't this why Warburton quit his last job Some conflicting info on why he left but I think it was mainly because he didn't want to work 'under' a DoF as opposed to disagreeing with the use of stats in the structure... Warburton thinks there will be an increase in math modelling and is comfortable with that having implemented some of those ideas while in the Brentford job. 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zappa 0 Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 (edited) Individual-level stats wouldn't accommodate opponents making adjustments to their play to counter your strengths: your a dominant, tough-tackling central midfielder but your stats aren't as good as others' become opponents try to play down the flanks or go long to avoid you, for eg. Have to agree and would also add that scouting based on certain individual stats could be misleading in other ways as well. In reality, something like pass completion stats can have as much to do with the way your team plays (shape, movement etc) and the quality of your teammates as they do the actual passer of the ball. Edited June 10, 2015 by Zappa 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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