Popular Post DMAA 3,603 Posted January 21, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted January 21, 2020 (edited) We're only half way there and we have it all to do. But the first half of the season has been better than some maybe recognise. On the face of it, looking at the League table, we have just edged it. We are joint on a goal difference of +42 but we have dropped 1 point less. However, we have dropped 1 point less and have managed an identical goal difference despite playing: 1 less game 3 fewer home games 2 more away games So taking them 1 at a time, what's the significance of those stats? All of the below excludes OF games and assumes current form to date will continue. 1 less game Goal Difference Rangers average GD per game is 2.2, Celtic's is 2.1 so it gives them a 2 goal GD advantage that they have played 1 more game Points Both sides average circa 2.6 points a game so obviously this gives them an advantage of about 3 points 3 fewer homes games Goal Difference Rangers average home GD is +3.43, Celtic's is + 2.9 If we had played 3 extra home games our GD would be 10.3 better off Points Both have a 100% home record so no impact 2 more away games Goal Difference Rangers average away GD is + 1.9, Celtic's is +1.33 If Celtic had played 2 extra away games, their GD would be 2.6 better off Points Rangers average points dropped away from home is 0.4, Celtic's is 0.625 If Celtic had played 2 extra away games they would have dropped 1.25 additional points I know the methodology isn't perfect, but if you add those together you end up with: Rangers 2 points clear Rangers 8 goals clear on goal difference The first half of the league campaign has exceeded everyone's expectations. Let's hope it can be maintained! Big challenge ahead. Edited January 21, 2020 by DMAA 6 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMAA 3,603 Posted January 21, 2020 Author Share Posted January 21, 2020 I only included the average GDs above, but I should add that we were on top for every stat; home goals scored, home goals conceded, away goals scored, away goals conceded. We're only half way but those are some very encouraging stats. 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackSocksRedTops 3,476 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Very scientific indeed. For me the only stat that matters is that we just have to keep winning. If we keep winning our games we win the title. That's a fact. Draws are as good as defeats in a tight league race 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
craig 5,195 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 31 minutes ago, DMAA said: I only included the average GDs above, but I should add that we were on top for every stat; home goals scored, home goals conceded, away goals scored, away goals conceded. We're only half way but those are some very encouraging stats. The first couple of league games are of the biggest concern to me. Why ? Because it was at this stage last season that our title challenge flopped. If we come out against St Mirren and Hearts and beat them whilst performing reasonably well then I will take significant encouragement that our 1st half form has continued. The mid-season break didn't do us many favours. If anything it helped Celtic IMO. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMAA 3,603 Posted January 21, 2020 Author Share Posted January 21, 2020 22 minutes ago, craig said: The first couple of league games are of the biggest concern to me. Why ? Because it was at this stage last season that our title challenge flopped. At this stage last season all those stats were significantly worse though and you could flip every one in Celtic’s favour. We had a terrible December. There was little justification for the level of optimism at this stage last season but this season it is backed up by the stats. The absence of Morelos and Tavernier and the threat of future injuries and suspensions in the biggest worry for me. Our starting 11 have been exceptional but we lack a bit of quality on the bench. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
craig 5,195 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 22 minutes ago, DMAA said: At this stage last season all those stats were significantly worse though and you could flip every one in Celtic’s favour. We had a terrible December. There was little justification for the level of optimism at this stage last season but this season it is backed up by the stats. The absence of Morelos and Tavernier and the threat of future injuries and suspensions in the biggest worry for me. Our starting 11 have been exceptional but we lack a bit of quality on the bench. Aye, but we all know the proverb about stats The proof will be in the results and performances. Starting tomorrow night. LETS GO !!! 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
the gunslinger 3,366 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 (edited) i don't think celtc have a 100% home record nor do we in fairness. Edited January 21, 2020 by the gunslinger 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
compo 6,138 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 The only stat that counts is 55 ,,,mon the gers . 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMAA 3,603 Posted January 21, 2020 Author Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 hour ago, the gunslinger said: i don't think celtc have a 100% home record nor do we in fairness. You must have skim-read, I said all stats were not including Old Firm games. The difference in games played home and away was between the rest of the league so to gain a more accurate prediction of how those games would go I didn't include Old Firm games which would skew the stats. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franc Ergs 1,352 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I fancy us to go top tomorrow. 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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