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Realistic outcome of shares split 'For Dummies'?


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McColl would not have come this far if he wasn't confident.

Tuesday into Wednesday will prove important days.

 

This is total guess work but with reasoning behind it (I think).

 

(1) Dave King is in there somewhere. I'm very confident of that. He has made it 100% clear he will only put his (potentially substantial) money in when he knows it will go to The Club and not to pay off chancers looking to make a fast buck on his money.

(2) McColl has announced no major investors that we are aware of. He has stated he won't invest.

(3) King has been actively trying to gain 'fit and proper person' status from the SFA (or whatever they are called now) which he readily admits, but he knows he still has his doubters after his dealings with SARS.

(4) Here is where my lack of corporate knowledge comes in. When McColl goes to existing investors to gain support at the expense of Green does he move into pole position if he can say "I have a man (Dave King?) on board who is willing to invest heavily in this Club if we get your support. Where does any major investment come from otherwise? Once The Club are back in the top league, without that investment, - no Europe , no profit, no return on your investment. Our main rivals over in Breezeblock Boulevard are banking money by the week awaiting our return"?

 

Wishful thinking? Maybe. Far fetched? I'm not so sure.

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This is total guess work but with reasoning behind it (I think).

 

(1) Dave King is in there somewhere. I'm very confident of that. He has made it 100% clear he will only put his (potentially substantial) money in when he knows it will go to The Club and not to pay off chancers looking to make a fast buck on his money.

(2) McColl has announced no major investors that we are aware of. He has stated he won't invest.

(3) King has been actively trying to gain 'fit and proper person' status from the SFA (or whatever they are called now) which he readily admits, but he knows he still has his doubters after his dealings with SARS.

(4) Here is where my lack of corporate knowledge comes in. When McColl goes to existing investors to gain support at the expense of Green does he move into pole position if he can say "I have a man (Dave King?) on board who is willing to invest heavily in this Club if we get your support. Where does any major investment come from otherwise? Once The Club are back in the top league, without that investment, - no Europe , no profit, no return on your investment. Our main rivals over in Breezeblock Boulevard are banking money by the week awaiting our return"?

 

Wishful thinking? Maybe. Far fetched? I'm not so sure.

 

McColl will be telling investors - especially institutional ones - that if the current management is allowed to stay in place then Rangers will end up in administration again and they will lose their money. He will be pointing out that he has new management lined up who are highly respectable and have a proven track record (Blin, Murray) and who will bring the club back on an even keel and start making money. He will be admitting to them that there will need to be a cash call in return for more shares but that is the best way to safeguard their investment and get a return in the long run. He may also be hinting that he can line up new cash (King).

 

Remember, it is not unusual to have multiple cash calls in turnaround situations and that, in itself, will not surprise the investors. The key issue here is their confidence in management to bring the club back to profitability and increase the share value. That confidence is what McColl is playing on.

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Guest carter001
McColl would not have come this far if he wasn't confident.

 

Tuesday into Wednesday will prove important days.

 

McColl was the credible front to this bid and has an interest in seeing Rangers do well. He, as he has already mentioned, does not have the time to get deeply involved in the running of the clubbut, but is firmly behind the need for change. However, i'm sure things have changed since green went on SSN and basically gave him a slap and told him to be quiet. I worked with Clyde Blowers for over a decade and Jim McColl doesn't take that kind of public humiliation well and i'm sure that behind the scenes he will have stepped things up to make sure he doesn't lose.

He has done it time and again in business, especially with the Weir group where he was taunted by the chairman about not having it in him to buy weirs. He went out his way to prove him wrong and made a tidy profit along the way.

Although it is business McColl will take it as a slight on his person and i'm sure he will not let green win.

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The problem here is that there isn't a horse worth backing in their present format.

 

Green & Co have had their time, saved the club, fought the SFA, and got us through the Share Issue with a fair deal of success. Post IPO it has been all downhill, fast, and they are now pretty much finished as credible owners/operators of the club. However, many of the investors that they brought in either before or during the IPO, may still believe in them, have good history with them, or do not believe the alternative is credible.

 

Turning to the alternative, we have a minority shareholder in McColl who says he wants change but doesnt have any spare cash to put in the pot. He wants to bring back the failed Director Paul Murray, who sat around while LBG tried to rip us apart with cost-savings and said nothing, and introduce Blin to the board. Apart from that, nothing. No intimation to the fans about his plans, no offer to buy the club from the current shareholders. Just shouting a lot and doing nothing. Much like The Blue Knights actually during our administration period. And look how that turned out for them.

 

Stockbridge and Mather have also been doing the rounds to the "institutional investors", no doubt telling them to back the status quo and that everything is in order and not to believe the scaremongers.

 

The unknown quantity here in all this is King. Now free to invest, with a proven track record of pumping his money in instead of empty words, he has slaughtered the current board and made armageddon type statements. These must be taken into context. I understand he wants to buy the shares from Green&Co at a price much lower than either the current value, or what Green will accept. Therefore making a statement about Admin2 which could have an adverse affect on the share price, is more to do with political manoevering than a real belief that the club will fail again.

 

King has the resources to buy the club, or enough of a shareholding to control the club, and still invest in it. However will he want to do this as a minority shareholder (i.e.under the 30% compulsory limit), or will he want to take the club off public listing and into private ownership? Again, we don't know, and it is hard to back all these different visions and plans without knowing their plans.

 

Unfortunately I dont see the events of this week, or a potential EGM in 6 weeks as giving us any long-term stability. If CG wins, there will be more mud-slinging from the McColl consortium. If McColl wins there will be more mudslinging from the Green camp.

 

Whoever wins the votes doesnt mean that the other shareholders are going to go away. It doesn't mean our finances take an entirely different shape. All it means is we replace one lot of self-centred egotists with another. Or not.

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