Predictions for EURO 2016 Quarter-Finals

[Rousseau 9,500]

The Germany-Italy game looks really interesting -- I'm salivating thinking about it! We have two tournament powerhouses. Germany are undoubtedly the favourites, but Italy have been tactically superb throughout, so it's not a sure thing.

[buster. 4,808]

The Germany-Italy game looks really interesting -- I'm salivating thinking about it! We have two tournament powerhouses. Germany are undoubtedly the favourites, but Italy have been tactically superb throughout, so it's not a sure thing.

 

It's being reported that De Rossi is unfit and we know that Motta (his natural deputy) is suspended and that would seem to be a significant blow to the Italians whilst the Germans are at full strength.

 

I don't think the Italians will be able to bully and press the Germans like they did a Spanish team with no real fight, so you'd imagine a lot will depend on the usually miserly Juventus defence and it's ability to frustrate the Germans.

 

Defensive organisation

Germans haven't conceded a goal at the tournament whilst the Italians have only conceded one (when they weren't at full strength against Ireland).

Edited July 2, 2016 by buster.

[Rousseau 9,500]

It's being reported that De Rossi is unfit and we know that Motta (his natural deputy) is suspended and that would seem to be a significant blow to the Italians whilst the Germans are at full strength.

 

I don't think the Italians will be able to bully and press the Germans like they did a Spanish team with no real fight, so you'd imagine a lot will depend on the usually miserly Juventus defence and it's ability to frustrate the Germans.

 

Defensive organisation

Germans haven't conceded a goal at the tournament whilst the Italians have only conceded one (when they weren't at full strength against Ireland).

 

Candreva is still out too. The Italians don't really have a like-for-like replacement for De Rossi and Motta, so that, like you say, could be an issue. I have no doubt they'll be well-prepared and well-drilled.

 

It'll be interesting to see what the Germans do, regarding strikers. They have played a false-nine in the earlier games and then went with a natural 9 in Gomez for the last two, I believe. A natural 9 will be easy fodder for the Italian back-three; they'll relish the physical battle. A false-nine may pose more problems for the Italians? Who knows? It is really interesting.

Edited July 2, 2016 by Rousseau

[Rousseau 9,500]

After getting the sack from his first job in coaching with Arezzo, Antonio Conte wasn’t about to sit around and feel sorry for himself. Instead he vowed to put his time out of work to good use. His self-improvement drive moved up a gear. Conte sought to broaden his mind and booked a trip to Holland, knowingly following in the footsteps of Arrigo Sacchi.

 

A request to watch Ajax train was gratefully accepted. However, the team Conte most looked forward to observing up close and personal was AZ Alkmaar. They were the Dutch champions at the time and were coached by Louis van Gaal, “a football maestro.” So one day Conte drove to Alkmaar with Betta, his wife. The session was open to the public and when it finished he contemplated introducing himself to van Gaal.

 

But Conte’s timidness got the better of him. When he came back the following day, AZ were training behind closed doors. Undeterred Conte still tried to get in. As he did so, he felt a tap on his shoulder. Initially Conte didn’t turn around because he thought it was Betta.

 

Instead it turned out to be “Ronald Koeman’s evil twin,” a security guard working for the club. “Are you spying on Mister van Gaal?” he asked. It was at this stage, as he fumbled for a response, that Conte resolved to work on his English.

 

Another valuable lesson learned from that experience was to closely guard your secrets. For a master strategist like Conte, it is one he has taken to heart as anyone who has visited Montpellier’s Roland Gasset training ground over the last month will no doubt be aware.

 

Rings of barbed wire run along the walls. Security guards patrol the perimeter with muzzled Rottweilers. There are police cars parked on standby. The uninitiated could be forgiven for thinking it is a high security prison or even that a head of state is in residence.

 

No outsiders are permitted entry, apart from one. “Conte allows me to watch training,” revealed Montpellier President Louis Nicollin. “I mean, I do own the training ground. But he shouldn’t worry. I won’t say anything to anyone.” He better not. Conte takes industrial espionage very seriously.

 

His decision not to train at the Stade des Lumières the night before the Belgium game, instead choosing to stay in Montpellier and practice there on the morning of the game and then travel was put down to fear of giving too much away. Conte denied it. “I am not afraid of spies,” he insisted.

 

There are patterns of play that any opposition analyst worth their salt will have picked up on in this Italy team. For instance, they line up in a 3-5-2. Without the ball, though, it evolves to 4-4-2 and with it, it changes to 3-3-4.

 

“Your system is the most complicated for a team that wants to press high,” Xavi told La Gazzetta dello Sport. “When Italy play out from the back they have got three centre-backs and two wide players. That’s five possible ball carriers and it becomes difficult to press as Spain would like.

 

Then playing with two strikers also complicates matters because both of them occupy the centre-backs and one of the full-backs has to push up and close down Candreva or Florenzi so you find yourself playing a back three as well. It forces you to change system and adapt to your opponent and that’s when things become difficult.”

 

Opponents should be aware by now of how Italy escape the press. Conte has a number of solutions. First they often bypass the midfield altogether and play it straight to Graziano Pellè, who likes to either hold it up for a midfield runner or send it out-wide to a wing-back.

 

Second, in cases when Leo Bonucci and Daniele De Rossi are man-marked, Giorgio Chiellini or Andrea Barzagli go to the wing-backs. This happened a lot against Spain. Chiellini had more touches and made more passes than any of his teammates.

 

If you sit back and stand off Italy and let Bonucci, in particular, play there is always the risk he will punish you with a ball over the top. Emanuele Giaccherini’s goal against Belgium is a case in point. It’s a well-rehearsed routine. Italy’s wing-backs occupy the full-backs and draw them as wide as they can. The strikers, meanwhile, get busy occupying the centre-backs. Gaping holes now appear in the defence for a midfield runner, released by Bonucci, to dash into. It’s a Conte classic.

 

All of this should of course be nothing new to Joachim Löw. The trouble is, with Conte, that’s not all. Maintaining the element of surprise is everything to him and explains the lockdown in Montpellier. Tactics have added immense value to this modestly talented Italy squad.

 

They have allowed them to overcome their limits and become greater than the sum of their parts. Keeping them strictly for the Azzurri’s eyes only is paramount. Come kick off on Saturday, Löw will have to have his wits about him. He was out-coached by Cesare Prandelli four years ago and now faces an even more formidable schemer.

 

Weaknesses in his team will have been identified by Conte. The video and data analysis done by his staff, in particular Antonio Gagliardi, is believed to have found three areas which Italy are likely to concentrate on. The first is Toni Kroos.

 

Real Madrid’s Champions League winning playmaker is Germany’s architect in midfield. He has averaged 130 touches per game and one can imagine Conte asking Pellè to carry out the same job on Kroos as he did on Sergio Busquets against Spain.

 

It has also been noticed that Kroos leans more one way than the other. Fifty eight per cent of his passes are either to the left [40 percent] or through the middle [18 percent]. So making Kroos play where he is less comfortable might be an idea.

 

The emphasis on building attacks down the left where Jonas Hector likes to get forward in support of Julian Draxler also highlights where Germany leave themselves vulnerable. Poland focused 44 percent of their play down that flank.

 

Curiously, the Poles managed to do more with less on the other side. That was where they where able to get their shots off. Isolating Joshua Kimmich and taking advantage of the 21-year-old’s inexperience and unfamiliarity with playing right-back brought them some joy. On average, he has lost the ball 17 times a game and doesn’t match up well with a reborn Mattia De Sciglio in the air and on the ground.

 

How Germany cope in general with the intensity of Italy’s hustle is another thing. Sami Khedira’s legs have looked heavy so far. His opposite number Giaccherini has by contrast run like the wind, establishing a tournament record for ground covered [12.97km] against Spain. This in a team that has clocked up more kilometres than any other in France and by some distance.

 

Urs Siegenthaler, Germany’s chief scout, has already been given the run around. He cycled out of their Evian training base this week after sightings of a man up on a hill, taking cover in the bushes, apparently surveilling one of their set-piece sessions. The assumption was Conte had sent one of his agents on a reconnaissance mission.

 

But all spycatcher Siegenthaler found in the end was a fellow German. By now there can’t be much more intelligence gathering left to do and when training finishes today, Conte could always retire to the library in Italy’s Montpellier hotel for some light reading. The Italian press corp have noticed it holds a copy of Sun Tzu’s Art of War. “I’ve read it,” Conte said. It presumably has nothing on his battle plan for Germany.

 

http://www.gazzettaworld.com/features/chelsea-on-to-a-winner-as-conte-plots-germany-downfall/?utm_content=buffer6cebd&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer&refresh_ce-cp

Edited July 2, 2016 by Rousseau

[Tannochsidebear 2,321]

Very interesting preview piece that in the Italian press. Something we will never ever see in Scottish newspapers. Uses a mixture of research, interview, stats and tactics to give the reader a different angle from what they will already know about the sides and the game. This should be used by every Scottish newspaper editor and sports journalist as the benchmark for what readers want and expect for the coming season.

[craig 5,199]

It has also been noticed that Kroos leans more one way than the other. Fifty eight per cent of his passes are either to the left [40 percent] or through the middle [18 percent]. So making Kroos play where he is less comfortable might be an idea.

 

Does this not mean 42% of his passes are to the right ??

[Tannochsidebear 2,321]

It has also been noticed that Kroos leans more one way than the other. Fifty eight per cent of his passes are either to the left [40 percent] or through the middle [18 percent]. So making Kroos play where he is less comfortable might be an idea.

 

Does this not mean 42% of his passes are to the right ??

 

Yes, I noticed that as well so not quite sure what the point was of that stat - it looked fairly even to me! It could of course be more relevant if his more probing forward passes were significantly one-sided, but it doesnt really say that.

[Rousseau 9,500]

There is some movement in the top-half of the table, but the majority failed to gain any points. Cooponthewing, Little General, YB, blueflag and Pete gain 1 point for correctly predicting the draw; but Little General, blueflag and Pete get full points for correctly predicting the 1-1 scoreline (AET).

 

blueflag and Pete close the gap at the top.

 

Latest Standings:

 

Edited July 3, 2016 by Rousseau

[buster. 4,808]

These later stages are proving difficult and the games are running out.

 

Whosthedado is looking good for the win,..... you could say that he is the Germany of the predictor league.

A proven past champion who is doing enough to secure another honour.

 

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Got bored with the game last night and not particularly interested in tonights match.

Wales are a team who tend to be worth watching though so I'll be up for watching the first semi-final.

[der Berliner 3,290]

Well, a correct prediction could cause havoc in the top part of the table. Whosthedado might "sneak" it if he simply checks what 2 to 4 have predicted and chose a similar score )not least No. 2), thus minimalizing the chances of being caught. But he sure doesn't need that!

 

Tonight will be another hard one. Iceland look like a well-knit unit that can, on the day, take on everyone. A bit like Wimbledon in the days of Jones, Cunningham, Fashanu and Co.. Griezman, Giroud, Pogba and Co. should have the beating of them, but ...