Frankie 8,151 Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 (edited) As Celtic clinch the Scottish Premier League title and our European place for next year all but certain not to be given, our efforts on the field for this season are all but finished (other than the small matter of playing Celtic at Parkhead in a few weeks)! With that in mind, we can turn our full attention on the most important battle of the year – the race for Rangers; in which the winner will decide the very future of our 140 year old institution. At Saturday’s match versus St Mirren, 47000 fans gave the red card to liquidation but in real terms, we don’t have much of a say in who will buy the club given Duff & Phelps and Craig Whyte hold the aces in this particular poker game. Last week three bids were made before the administrator’s deadline and as we enjoy the Easter holiday with our families, it’s appropriate we examine what bid(s) can see the Rangers we know and love resurrected to deliver a successful future. All three bids have signalled they recognise the contribution of the fans and there’s no doubt our goodwill will be central to the chances of any successful buyer. Indeed, while a preferred bidder may be selected over the next 3 or 4 days, they will still have a lot to prove to the support to get us onside should they do go and finalise the purchase. Let’s look at each bid in detail and examine their pros and cons. As usual, I’ve tried to be as neutral and constructive as possible. - The Blue Knights Led by Paul Murray but having anything up to ten other high net worth fans as part of their consortium, the Knights are arguably the favourites. No-one can deny their Rangers supporting background but what exactly do they bring to the table? Pros Genuine Rangers supporters Experience of running the club Involvement of Ticketus improves CVA value Backing of fan organisations Understanding of Scottish sporting challenges Cons Lack of available funding No clarity on security for further Ticketus loans Absence of alternative plan if share issue fails Associations with previous failed regime Can so many business egos work together in the longer term? - Singaporean Consortium With proven Singapore finance behind the bid via Bill Ng and his family, funding is perhaps not as much of a problem for this Asian interest. However, with the circumference of the globe between their market and the SPL, can they really have the same desire as others for the club? Pros Fully funded bid – no reliance on loans Experience of running an (albeit smaller) football club Involvement of UK based, Rangers supporting business experts Unrivalled knowledge of emerging Asian markets Likely to bring a fresh look to club strategy Cons Existing club not yet successful No initial Ticketus agreement Lack of transparency with regard to business plan Fan cynicism to quotes in foreign press Unfamiliarity with Scottish sporting culture - Bill Miller American bid Again it seems there’s no doubting the finance behind the offer but negative British press means the support is dubious about the Miller bid. However, can alleged links with Andrew Ellis help deliver a friendly hearing from the administrators? Pros Miller’s net worth appears sound Experience of American sporting ventures Single bidder – no need for consortium agreements Proven business success American markets also ripe for exploration Cons Links with both Craig Whyte and Andrew Ellis No initial Ticketus agreement Uncertainty with respect to rumours of asset sales No dialogue with supporters Unfamiliarity with Scottish sporting culture Of course, as well as judging the merits of each individual bid, the fans have had to wade through a variety of dubious media headlines to try and find a true picture of the club’s situation. With Duff & Phelps also contradicting themselves from week to week, Craig Whyte’s comments being closer to Carstairs than Motherwell and deliberately exaggerated £134million ‘total club debts’, there’s a huge difficulty in finding the real lie of the land. Liquidation is obviously a moral no-no but there remains a real lack of information on what any of the bidders plan. Sound-bites of fan involvement, overseas branding and turning the club around may appeal at first glance but the Rangers fans are once bitten, twice shy when it comes to media spin. Moreover, with the performance of the administrators inconsistent, the loyalty of Ticketus questionable (other to their Octopus investors) and the share-holding of Craig Whyte more relevant than anyone cares admit, there remains great uncertainty and I still don’t think any bid is a stand out. To that end, it’s impossible to back any bid as it stands and I’m surprised our fan groups threw their weight behind one bidder so quickly. Clearly, more information will filter out once the preferred bidder is known (possibly not until Thursday) but, fine red card display or not, the Rangers support will be unable to affect the decision-making process to any great extent. We can only hope Duff & Phelps are true to their word and understand what this club means to our supporters. After all, if we add in a lack of public political support, a media scenting blood, other clubs chancing their arm and the Scottish footballing authorities struggling to show the way; the accusations of Rangers being the part of the Establishment have never been more inaccurate. We’re on our own here and we should never forget the actions (or indeed inaction) of some during this whole process. The only certainty in this mess is that it has been a national scandal with the fall-out sure to be discussed for eternity. Indeed such debate should be welcomed and the appropriate people punished for their part in the deliberate corporate vandalism of our club. However, right now, we have to concentrate to help deliver a fully recovered Rangers Football Club which can again show why we’re still the most successful football club in the country. That’s easier said than done so may the best bid win. Edited April 8, 2012 by Frankie 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darthter 542 Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Did miller not state that he's never had any contact with Whyte? 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrahimHemdani 1 Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 (edited) The only thing I would question about your analysis is the Ticketus situation. If they are only "ordinary creditors" why does it matter that Miller and Ng have "No initial Ticketus agreement". Ng has said he will put up £12M to pay creditors so that could be anything from say 9p-20p in the pound. On that basis Ticketus would get say £2.5M - £5.0M. I would rather that than £10M over however many years to be funded out of a share issue. Also if you take £20M+ to Ticketus out of the total creditors it doesn't make all that much difference to what each would get, unless you believe that an extra 1.5p in the pound would make that much difference to a vote on a CVA. Edited April 8, 2012 by BrahimHemdani It was a £17M reduction, thanks BD! 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluedell 5,330 Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Like BH, I question the Ticketus issue. Why is it a pro to take them out of the CVA? We get them into the CVA and we emerge from the CVA debt free. We take them out of the CVA and we emerge from it with £10m+ still owing to them, the repayment of which will presumably come from the share issue to the fans. I know that the RST think this is "stunning" but I'm yet to be convinced that £10m debt is better than no debt. 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frankie 8,151 Posted April 8, 2012 Author Share Posted April 8, 2012 BH/BD: You guys know I'm not an expert in the financial side of things so I'll always defer to your knowledge. Way I see it is that if you involve Ticketus, you remove the chances of litigation and they may help deliver Whyte's holding because of his personal guarantees. Of course, it may not be as simple as that and the debts going forward to a dubious company are certainly worthy of debate. I'm particularly interested in the securities they require. ~£30million is a lot of money to a company that may have just lost a similar amount to Whyte. 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frankie 8,151 Posted April 8, 2012 Author Share Posted April 8, 2012 Did miller not state that he's never had any contact with Whyte? I think Club9 said they hadn't. Not so sure about Miller. 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrahimHemdani 1 Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 I know that the RST think this is "stunning" but I'm yet to be convinced that £10m debt is better than no debt. Why would anyone rather pay Ticketus £10M over 7 years out of a new share issue that would be paid by the fans than a figure unlikely to be half that in a CVA? It defies all logic but then......... The only reeason they would have made this deal is if they don't think they would win a court case. 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
forlanssister 3,050 Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Why would anyone rather pay Ticketus £10M over 7 years out of a new share issue that would be paid by the fans than a figure unlikely to be half that in a CVA? It defies all logic but then......... The only reeason they would have made this deal is if they don't think they would win a court case. No guarantee that they would back a CVA they may well decide "f*&k it we'd be as well liquidating", I suppose the BK's may argue that they have negated that possibility at a reasonable potential cost. 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrahimHemdani 1 Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 No guarantee that they would back a CVA they may well decide "f*&k it we'd be as well liquidating", I suppose the BK's may argue that they have negated that possibility at a reasonable potential cost. Possible but unlikely in my view. 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
CumbernauldGers 0 Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 To Frankie, Cheers for the info mate. In terms of Miller i have asked on a few forums for his links to CW and Ellis and nobody can give me anything, was just wondering where you got this from? I might be wrong but it seems to be a RST myth to get people against the bid. 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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